St. Louis Cardinals

47% win

pred 4.6

FINAL

Kansas City Royals

53% win

pred 4.1

2025-05-16 Kauffman Stadium 0°F

Top DFS Plays

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Michael Massey	OF	8.5	$2.7k	3.2
Cavan Biggio	OF	7.5	$2.4k	3.1
Vinnie Pasquantino	OF	9.8	$3.2k	3.1
Jonathan India	OF	9.1	$3.2k	2.8
Salvador Perez	OF	9.4	$3.4k	2.8
Masyn Winn	OF	8.3	$3.4k	2.4
Kyle Isbel	OF	6.9	$2.9k	2.4
Pedro Pagés	OF	7.4	$3.2k	2.3
Jordan Walker	OF	7.2	$3.2k	2.3
Willson Contreras	OF	8.3	$3.8k	2.2
Drew Waters	OF	6.7	$3.1k	2.2
Maikel Garcia	OF	8.8	$4.2k	2.1
Cole Ragans	SP	19.0	$9.3k	2.0
Nolan Arenado	OF	7.7	$3.9k	2.0
Brendan Donovan	OF	8.1	$4.4k	1.9
Lars Nootbaar	OF	8.9	$4.8k	1.9
Iván Herrera	OF	8.3	$4.7k	1.8
Bobby Witt Jr.	OF	9.5	$5.8k	1.6
Andre Pallante	SP	10.3	$6.3k	1.6
Victor Scott II	OF	6.4	$4.0k	1.6

Predictions

Kansas City Royals

ML · Model 53% vs Mkt 57%

-148 · $68 per $100

LOSS

St. Louis Cardinals +1.5

RL · 2.0 off line

-170 · $59 per $100

WIN

OVER 8.5

TOTAL · Proj 8.7 vs Line 8.5

-110 · $91 per $100

WIN

Kansas City Royals ML + St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 + OVER 8.5

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+408 · $408 per $100

LOSS

STL 47% 53% KC

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	86.4%	13.6%
6.5	80.6%	19.4%
7.5	69.8%	30.2%
8.5	61.8%	38.2%
9.5	50.8%	49.2%
10.5	42.4%	57.6%
11.5	34.2%	65.8%
12.5	28.5%	71.5%

Run Line (margin)

Line	KC covers	STL covers
KC -1.5	37.3%	35.4%
KC -2.5	26.5%	28.0%
KC -3.5	20.0%	20.7%

Team Totals

Line	KC	STL
O 3.5	67.1%	65.3%
O 4.5	54.1%	51.4%
O 5.5	40.7%	39.3%
O 6.5	28.3%	27.9%

Odds

moneyline KC 53% · -148 · $68 per $100

Book	STL	Impl%	KC	Impl%
DraftKings	+124	42.8%	-148	57.2%

runline St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 · -170 · $59 per $100

KC -1.5: KC 4.1 − 1.5 = 2.6 vs STL 4.6 no bet

STL +1.5: STL 4.6 + 1.5 = 6.1 vs KC 4.1 BET ✓

Book	STL		KC
DraftKings	+1.5	-170	-1.5	+142

total Over 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 8.5 -105	U 8.5 -115

Player Projections actual (projected)

St. Louis Cardinals

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Lars Nootbaar	RF	1.0	0.1	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.5	1.1	8.9	—
Iván Herrera	C	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.3	—
Willson Contreras	1B	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.1	8.3	—
Masyn Winn	SS	1.0	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.4	1.2	8.3	—
Brendan Donovan	2B	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.9	8.1	—
Nolan Arenado	3B	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	7.7	—
Pedro Pagés	C	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.1	7.4	—
Jordan Walker	RF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.1	7.2	—
Victor Scott II	CF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.3	1.0	6.4	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Andre Pallante	Starter	5.7	4.4	6.0	2.3	3.4	43%	100%	10.3	—

Kansas City Royals

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.0	0.3	0.7	9.8	—
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	1.2	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.4	0.8	9.5	—
Salvador Perez	C	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	0.8	9.4	—
Jonathan India	2B	1.1	0.1	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.6	0.8	9.1	—
Maikel Garcia	3B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.4	0.7	8.8	—
Michael Massey	2B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	0.7	8.5	—
Cavan Biggio	3B	0.8	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.8	7.5	—
Kyle Isbel	CF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	0.7	6.9	—
Drew Waters	RF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	0.9	6.7	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Cole Ragans	Starter	5.6	6.3	5.6	2.4	3.0	51%	100%	19.0	—