Atlanta Braves
47% win
4
pred 4.2
FINAL
Boston Red Sox
53% win
2
pred 4.7
2025-05-16 Fenway Park 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Stuart Fairchild OF 6.8 $2.2k 3.1
Nick Sogard OF 6.5 $2.4k 2.7
Nick Allen OF 6.6 $2.7k 2.5
Chris Sale SP 20.0 $8.9k 2.2
Eli White OF 8.0 $3.7k 2.2
Marcell Ozuna OF 9.2 $4.3k 2.1
Rob Refsnyder OF 7.8 $3.7k 2.1
Austin Riley OF 9.4 $4.6k 2.1
Michael Harris II OF 7.2 $3.6k 2.0
Carlos Narváez OF 6.7 $3.4k 2.0
Ceddanne Rafaela OF 6.6 $3.5k 1.9
Matt Olson OF 8.8 $4.8k 1.8
Sean Murphy OF 8.0 $4.4k 1.8
Garrett Crochet SP 19.2 $10.6k 1.8
Ozzie Albies OF 7.3 $4.1k 1.8
Trevor Story OF 6.6 $4.1k 1.6
Alex Bregman OF 8.6 $5.5k 1.6
Kristian Campbell OF 7.1 $4.6k 1.6
Rafael Devers OF 7.6 $5.0k 1.5
Jarren Duran OF 7.6 $5.3k 1.4
Predictions
Boston Red Sox
ML · Model 53% vs Mkt 51%
-115 · $87 per $100
LOSS
Boston Red Sox +1.5
RL · 1.9 off line
-185 · $54 per $100
LOSS
OVER 8.0
TOTAL · Proj 8.9 vs Line 8.0
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Boston Red Sox ML + Boston Red Sox +1.5 + OVER 8.0
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+450 · $450 per $100
LOSS
ATL 47% 53% BOS
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 80.2% 19.8%
6.5 73.1% 26.9%
7.5 62.4% 37.6%
8.5 54.7% 45.3%
9.5 45.1% 54.9%
10.5 38.2% 61.8%
11.5 29.4% 70.6%
12.5 23.6% 76.4%
Run Line (margin)
LineBOS coversATL covers
BOS -1.5 37.3% 34.3%
BOS -2.5 26.9% 25.2%
BOS -3.5 17.8% 19.0%
Team Totals
LineBOSATL
O 3.5 62.8% 60.6%
O 4.5 49.0% 46.0%
O 5.5 35.5% 35.4%
O 6.5 23.8% 25.2%
Odds
moneyline BOS 53% · -115 · $87 per $100
BookATLImpl%BOSImpl%
DraftKings -105 48.9% -115 51.1%
runline Boston Red Sox +1.5 · -185 · $54 per $100
ATL -1.5: ATL 4.2 − 1.5 = 2.7 vs BOS 4.7 no bet
BOS +1.5: BOS 4.7 + 1.5 = 6.2 vs ATL 4.2 BET ✗
BookATLBOS
DraftKings -1.5 +154 +1.5 -185
total Over 8.0 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.0 -102 U 8.0 -118
Player Projections actual (projected)
Atlanta Braves
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Austin Riley 3B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.3 9.4 —
Marcell Ozuna DH 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.1 9.2 —
Matt Olson 1B 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 8.8 —
Sean Murphy C 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.2 8.0 —
Eli White RF 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.3 8.0 —
Ozzie Albies 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 7.3 —
Michael Harris II CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 7.2 —
Stuart Fairchild LF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.1 6.8 —
Nick Allen SS 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 6.6 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Chris Sale Starter 6.0 7.1 6.1 2.1 3.2 45% 100% 20.0 —
Boston Red Sox
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Alex Bregman 3B 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.5 1.0 8.6 —
Rob Refsnyder RF 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.2 7.8 —
Jarren Duran LF 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.3 7.6 —
Rafael Devers DH 1.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 7.6 —
Kristian Campbell 2B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.2 7.1 —
Carlos Narváez C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 6.7 —
Ceddanne Rafaela CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 1.1 6.6 —
Trevor Story SS 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.2 6.6 —
Nick Sogard 2B 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.0 6.5 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Garrett Crochet Starter 6.2 7.2 6.1 2.4 3.2 51% 100% 19.2 —