Boston Red Sox
49% win
3
pred 4.4
FINAL
Kansas City Royals
51% win
1
pred 4.8
2025-05-11 Kauffman Stadium 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Nick Sogard OF 7.7 $2.0k 3.8
Michael Massey OF 8.2 $2.6k 3.1
Vinnie Pasquantino OF 9.5 $3.2k 3.0
David Hamilton OF 7.3 $2.6k 2.8
Jonathan India OF 9.2 $3.3k 2.8
Luke Maile OF 6.9 $2.5k 2.8
Kyle Isbel OF 7.0 $2.6k 2.7
Drew Waters OF 7.5 $2.9k 2.6
Ceddanne Rafaela OF 7.7 $3.2k 2.4
Carlos Narváez OF 8.4 $3.5k 2.4
Salvador Perez OF 8.3 $3.6k 2.3
Trevor Story OF 8.8 $4.0k 2.2
Rafael Devers OF 10.1 $4.7k 2.1
Wilyer Abreu OF 10.1 $4.9k 2.1
Maikel Garcia OF 8.2 $4.2k 2.0
Jarren Duran OF 9.9 $5.1k 1.9
Alex Bregman OF 10.1 $5.3k 1.9
Lucas Giolito SP 14.3 $7.9k 1.8
Seth Lugo SP 13.8 $8.5k 1.6
Bobby Witt Jr. OF 9.3 $6.2k 1.5
Predictions
Kansas City Royals
ML · Model 51% vs Mkt 52%
-118 · $85 per $100
LOSS
Kansas City Royals +1.5
RL · 1.9 off line
-185 · $54 per $100
LOSS
OVER 8.5
TOTAL · Proj 9.2 vs Line 8.5
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Kansas City Royals ML + Kansas City Royals +1.5 + OVER 8.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+443 · $443 per $100
LOSS
BOS 49% 51% KC
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 84.2% 15.8%
6.5 78.0% 22.0%
7.5 66.1% 33.9%
8.5 58.7% 41.3%
9.5 48.8% 51.2%
10.5 40.5% 59.5%
11.5 32.0% 68.0%
12.5 25.9% 74.1%
Run Line (margin)
LineKC coversBOS covers
KC -1.5 39.1% 33.2%
KC -2.5 30.3% 24.5%
KC -3.5 21.5% 17.7%
Team Totals
LineKCBOS
O 3.5 66.2% 60.6%
O 4.5 52.4% 48.4%
O 5.5 40.7% 35.5%
O 6.5 29.8% 25.9%
Odds
moneyline KC 51% · -118 · $85 per $100
BookBOSImpl%KCImpl%
DraftKings -102 48.3% -118 51.7%
runline Kansas City Royals +1.5 · -185 · $54 per $100
BOS -1.5: BOS 4.4 − 1.5 = 2.9 vs KC 4.8 no bet
KC +1.5: KC 4.8 + 1.5 = 6.3 vs BOS 4.4 BET ✗
BookBOSKC
DraftKings -1.5 +154 +1.5 -185
total Over 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.5 -118 U 8.5 -102
Player Projections actual (projected)
Boston Red Sox
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Wilyer Abreu RF 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 10.1 —
Alex Bregman 3B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.8 10.1 —
Rafael Devers DH 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 10.1 —
Jarren Duran LF 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.0 9.9 —
Trevor Story SS 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 1.0 8.8 —
Carlos Narváez C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 8.4 —
Ceddanne Rafaela CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 7.7 —
Nick Sogard 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 7.7 —
David Hamilton 2B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.9 7.3 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Lucas Giolito Starter 5.7 5.8 6.2 2.0 3.5 42% 100% 14.3 —
Kansas City Royals
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 9.5 —
Bobby Witt Jr. SS 1.2 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 9.3 —
Jonathan India 2B 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.0 9.2 —
Salvador Perez C 1.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 8.3 —
Maikel Garcia 3B 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 8.2 —
Michael Massey 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 8.2 —
Drew Waters RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 7.5 —
Kyle Isbel CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.0 —
Luke Maile C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 6.9 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Seth Lugo Starter 6.5 6.2 6.4 2.1 3.3 52% 100% 13.8 —