Cincinnati Reds
35% win
0
pred 5.1
FINAL
Houston Astros
65% win
6
pred 4.4
2025-05-11 Daikin Park 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Victor Caratini OF 8.7 $2.6k 3.3
Christian Walker OF 9.5 $3.5k 2.7
Ronel Blanco SP 20.2 $7.5k 2.7
Brendan Rodgers OF 7.0 $2.7k 2.6
Zach Dezenzo OF 7.0 $2.8k 2.5
Yainer Diaz OF 8.1 $3.3k 2.5
Isaac Paredes OF 8.7 $3.7k 2.4
Cam Smith OF 6.4 $2.8k 2.3
Jeremy Peña OF 8.8 $3.9k 2.3
Will Benson OF 6.8 $3.0k 2.3
Gavin Lux OF 7.4 $3.5k 2.1
Spencer Steer OF 6.8 $3.3k 2.1
Jose Trevino OF 6.9 $3.4k 2.0
TJ Friedl OF 7.9 $4.0k 2.0
Jake Meyers OF 7.7 $3.9k 2.0
Santiago Espinal OF 5.9 $3.2k 1.8
Austin Hays OF 7.5 $4.1k 1.8
Matt McLain OF 7.6 $4.4k 1.7
Elly De La Cruz OF 7.3 $5.6k 1.3
Chase Petty SP 7.4 $6.3k 1.2
Best Bets
Houston Astros
ML ★ · +6.9% edge
-155 · $100 bet · $65 profit
Model: 65% vs Market: 58%
WIN
Predictions
Houston Astros
ML · Model 65% vs Mkt 58%
-155 · $65 per $100
WIN
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
RL · 2.2 off line
-170 · $59 per $100
LOSS
OVER 8.5
TOTAL · Proj 9.5 vs Line 8.5
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Houston Astros ML + Cincinnati Reds +1.5 + OVER 8.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+399 · $399 per $100
LOSS
CIN 35% 65% HOU
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 83.8% 16.2%
6.5 78.1% 21.9%
7.5 68.9% 31.1%
8.5 60.6% 39.4%
9.5 50.3% 49.7%
10.5 41.9% 58.1%
11.5 33.7% 66.3%
12.5 26.4% 73.6%
Run Line (margin)
LineHOU coversCIN covers
HOU -1.5 37.1% 38.1%
HOU -2.5 25.4% 29.2%
HOU -3.5 17.1% 21.4%
Team Totals
LineHOUCIN
O 3.5 64.4% 66.7%
O 4.5 50.6% 52.5%
O 5.5 38.2% 39.8%
O 6.5 27.6% 30.0%
Odds
moneyline HOU 65% · -155 · $65 per $100
BookCINImpl%HOUImpl%
DraftKings +130 41.7% -155 58.3%
runline Cincinnati Reds +1.5 · -170 · $59 per $100
HOU -1.5: HOU 4.4 − 1.5 = 2.9 vs CIN 5.1 no bet
CIN +1.5: CIN 5.1 + 1.5 = 6.6 vs HOU 4.4 BET ✗
BookCINHOU
DraftKings +1.5 -170 -1.5 +142
total Over 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.5 -108 U 8.5 -112
Player Projections actual (projected)
Cincinnati Reds
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
TJ Friedl CF 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.9 7.9 —
Matt McLain 2B 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.5 1.2 7.6 —
Austin Hays LF 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 7.5 —
Gavin Lux 2B 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 7.4 —
Elly De La Cruz SS 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 1.2 7.3 —
Jose Trevino C 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 6.9 —
Spencer Steer 1B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 6.8 —
Will Benson LF 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 6.8 —
Santiago Espinal 3B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 5.9 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Chase Petty Starter 5.2 5.2 5.5 1.9 2.9 43% 100% 7.4 —
Houston Astros
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Christian Walker 1B 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 9.5 —
Jeremy Peña SS 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 8.8 —
Isaac Paredes 3B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.8 8.7 —
Victor Caratini C 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 8.7 —
Yainer Diaz C 1.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 8.1 —
Jake Meyers CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.7 —
Brendan Rodgers 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 7.0 —
Zach Dezenzo 1B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 7.0 —
Cam Smith RF 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.1 6.4 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Ronel Blanco Starter 5.6 5.5 5.2 2.5 3.1 48% 100% 20.2 —