Chicago Cubs
39% win
2
pred 4.6
FINAL
New York Mets
61% win
6
pred 4.8
2025-05-11 Citi Field 0°F
Best Bets
New York Mets
ML ★★ · +8.4% edge
-122 · $200 bet · $164 profit
Model: 61% vs Market: 53%
WIN
Predictions
New York Mets
ML · Model 61% vs Mkt 53%
-122 · $82 per $100
WIN
New York Mets +1.5
RL · 1.6 off line
-198 · $51 per $100
WIN
OVER 8.0
TOTAL · Proj 9.4 vs Line 8.0
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
New York Mets ML + New York Mets +1.5 + OVER 8.0
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+423 · $423 per $100
LOSS
CHC 39% 61% NYM
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 86.5% 13.5%
6.5 80.0% 20.0%
7.5 71.8% 28.2%
8.5 64.7% 35.3%
9.5 52.6% 47.4%
10.5 46.7% 53.3%
11.5 36.7% 63.3%
12.5 29.9% 70.1%
Run Line (margin)
LineNYM coversCHC covers
NYM -1.5 35.6% 38.6%
NYM -2.5 25.7% 29.2%
NYM -3.5 16.8% 21.2%
Team Totals
LineNYMCHC
O 3.5 66.5% 67.8%
O 4.5 53.6% 56.3%
O 5.5 41.4% 43.9%
O 6.5 29.8% 32.2%
Odds
moneyline NYM 61% · -122 · $82 per $100
BookCHCImpl%NYMImpl%
DraftKings +102 47.4% -122 52.6%
runline New York Mets +1.5 · -198 · $51 per $100
CHC -1.5: CHC 4.6 − 1.5 = 3.1 vs NYM 4.8 no bet
NYM +1.5: NYM 4.8 + 1.5 = 6.3 vs CHC 4.6 BET ✓
BookCHCNYM
DraftKings -1.5 +164 +1.5 -198
total Over 8.0 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.0 -115 U 8.0 -105
Player Projections actual (projected)
Chicago Cubs
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Kyle Tucker RF 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.8 11.0 —
Seiya Suzuki RF 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 10.3 —
Michael Busch 1B 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.1 9.9 —
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.1 9.7 —
Dansby Swanson SS 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.0 9.0 —
Carson Kelly C 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 8.9 —
Nico Hoerner 2B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.7 7.4 —
Justin Turner 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.9 7.3 —
Jon Berti 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 7.0 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Matthew Boyd Starter 5.8 5.8 6.2 2.2 3.5 46% 100% 15.6 —
New York Mets
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Pete Alonso 1B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 10.5 —
Juan Soto RF 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.5 1.0 10.2 —
Francisco Lindor SS 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.9 9.4 —
Brandon Nimmo LF 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 9.2 —
Mark Vientos 3B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 8.6 —
Luis Torrens C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 7.8 —
Starling Marte LF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.9 7.5 —
Tyrone Taylor CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 7.1 —
Luisangel Acuña 2B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.9 7.0 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Griffin Canning Starter 5.4 5.2 5.7 2.2 3.2 45% 100% 12.6 —