Boston Red Sox
54% win
1
pred 4.8
FINAL
Kansas City Royals
46% win
2
pred 5.2
2025-05-09 Kauffman Stadium 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Abraham Toro OF 7.4 $2.0k 3.7
Jonathan India OF 9.3 $3.2k 2.9
Freddy Fermin OF 6.8 $2.4k 2.9
Michael Massey OF 7.7 $2.7k 2.8
Vinnie Pasquantino OF 9.0 $3.3k 2.7
Connor Wong OF 7.1 $2.6k 2.7
Kyle Isbel OF 6.9 $2.8k 2.5
Salvador Perez OF 8.6 $3.7k 2.3
Mark Canha OF 6.8 $3.2k 2.1
Rafael Devers OF 10.0 $4.8k 2.1
Kristian Campbell OF 9.0 $4.5k 2.0
Wilyer Abreu OF 9.9 $5.0k 2.0
Trevor Story OF 7.9 $4.1k 1.9
Alex Bregman OF 10.4 $5.4k 1.9
Ceddanne Rafaela OF 6.3 $3.3k 1.9
Maikel Garcia OF 8.3 $4.5k 1.9
Jarren Duran OF 9.8 $5.3k 1.9
Michael Lorenzen SP 12.6 $7.2k 1.8
Bobby Witt Jr. OF 9.6 $5.9k 1.6
Hunter Dobbins SP 11.5 $7.7k 1.5
Predictions
Boston Red Sox
ML · Model 54% vs Mkt 52%
-120 · $83 per $100
LOSS
Kansas City Royals +1.5
RL · 1.9 off line
-162 · $62 per $100
WIN
OVER 9.0
TOTAL · Proj 9.9 vs Line 9.0
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Boston Red Sox ML + Kansas City Royals +1.5 + OVER 9.0
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+466 · $466 per $100
LOSS
BOS 54% 46% KC
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 88.2% 11.8%
6.5 81.1% 18.9%
7.5 70.9% 29.1%
8.5 62.3% 37.7%
9.5 53.1% 46.9%
10.5 43.6% 56.4%
11.5 33.2% 66.8%
12.5 26.6% 73.4%
Run Line (margin)
LineKC coversBOS covers
KC -1.5 31.2% 44.1%
KC -2.5 22.6% 34.2%
KC -3.5 15.6% 26.3%
Team Totals
LineKCBOS
O 3.5 63.1% 71.2%
O 4.5 48.1% 58.6%
O 5.5 34.6% 45.5%
O 6.5 22.3% 34.9%
Odds
moneyline BOS 54% · -120 · $83 per $100
BookBOSImpl%KCImpl%
DraftKings -120 52.2% +100 47.8%
runline Kansas City Royals +1.5 · -162 · $62 per $100
BOS -1.5: BOS 4.8 − 1.5 = 3.3 vs KC 5.2 no bet
KC +1.5: KC 5.2 + 1.5 = 6.7 vs BOS 4.8 BET ✓
BookBOSKC
DraftKings -1.5 +136 +1.5 -162
total Over 9.0 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 9.0 -102 U 9.0 -118
Player Projections actual (projected)
Boston Red Sox
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Alex Bregman 3B 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 10.4 —
Rafael Devers DH 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.9 10.0 —
Wilyer Abreu RF 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.9 9.9 —
Jarren Duran LF 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.0 9.8 —
Kristian Campbell 2B 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 9.0 —
Trevor Story SS 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 1.0 7.9 —
Abraham Toro 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 7.4 —
Connor Wong C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 7.1 —
Ceddanne Rafaela CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 6.3 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Hunter Dobbins Starter 6.1 4.8 6.5 1.8 3.4 52% 100% 11.5 —
Kansas City Royals
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Bobby Witt Jr. SS 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.8 9.6 —
Jonathan India 2B 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.9 9.3 —
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 9.0 —
Salvador Perez C 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 8.6 —
Maikel Garcia 3B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 8.3 —
Michael Massey 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 7.7 —
Kyle Isbel CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 6.9 —
Freddy Fermin C 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 6.8 —
Mark Canha LF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 6.8 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Michael Lorenzen Starter 5.9 5.3 6.1 2.4 3.5 42% 100% 12.6 —