New York Mets
50% win
7
pred 4.4
FINAL
Arizona Diamondbacks
50% win
1
pred 5.3
2025-05-07 Chase Field 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Brett Baty OF 9.0 $2.5k 3.6
Jose Herrera OF 6.5 $2.3k 2.8
Luis Torrens OF 9.0 $3.3k 2.7
Brandon Nimmo OF 11.0 $4.2k 2.6
Juan Soto OF 13.0 $5.1k 2.6
Tyrone Taylor OF 7.3 $3.1k 2.4
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. OF 7.6 $3.3k 2.3
Alek Thomas OF 7.8 $3.4k 2.3
Jeff McNeil OF 7.8 $3.4k 2.3
Eugenio Suárez OF 9.6 $4.3k 2.2
Pete Alonso OF 12.6 $5.8k 2.2
Luisangel Acuña OF 8.0 $3.7k 2.2
Pavin Smith OF 9.5 $4.4k 2.2
Francisco Lindor OF 11.6 $5.4k 2.1
Tim Tawa OF 7.5 $3.6k 2.1
Geraldo Perdomo OF 9.1 $4.5k 2.0
Josh Naylor OF 9.0 $4.7k 1.9
Corbin Carroll OF 10.0 $6.1k 1.6
Kodai Senga SP 14.0 $8.8k 1.6
Merrill Kelly SP 9.3 $7.2k 1.3
Predictions
New York Mets
ML · Model 50% vs Mkt 53%
-125 · $80 per $100
WIN
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
RL · 2.4 off line
-155 · $65 per $100
LOSS
OVER 9.5
TOTAL · Proj 9.6 vs Line 9.5
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
New York Mets ML + Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 + OVER 9.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+465 · $465 per $100
LOSS
NYM 50% 50% AZ
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 83.2% 16.8%
6.5 77.7% 22.3%
7.5 67.0% 33.0%
8.5 60.3% 39.7%
9.5 50.5% 49.5%
10.5 41.1% 58.9%
11.5 33.2% 66.8%
12.5 26.8% 73.2%
Run Line (margin)
LineAZ coversNYM covers
AZ -1.5 34.4% 38.2%
AZ -2.5 22.7% 29.7%
AZ -3.5 14.8% 23.1%
Team Totals
LineAZNYM
O 3.5 61.9% 65.2%
O 4.5 49.0% 53.0%
O 5.5 35.3% 40.9%
O 6.5 23.0% 31.3%
Odds
moneyline NYM 50% · -125 · $80 per $100
BookNYMImpl%AZImpl%
DraftKings -125 53.3% +105 46.7%
runline Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 · -155 · $65 per $100
NYM -1.5: NYM 4.4 − 1.5 = 2.9 vs AZ 5.3 no bet
AZ +1.5: AZ 5.3 + 1.5 = 6.8 vs NYM 4.4 BET ✗
BookNYMAZ
DraftKings -1.5 +130 +1.5 -155
total Over 9.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 9.5 -108 U 9.5 -112
Player Projections actual (projected)
New York Mets
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Juan Soto RF 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 13.0 —
Pete Alonso 1B 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 12.6 —
Francisco Lindor SS 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 11.6 —
Brandon Nimmo LF 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 11.0 —
Brett Baty 3B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 9.0 —
Luis Torrens C 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 9.0 —
Luisangel Acuña 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8 8.0 —
Jeff McNeil 2B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 7.8 —
Tyrone Taylor CF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 7.3 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Kodai Senga Starter 5.5 5.7 5.4 2.6 3.0 47% 100% 14.0 —
Arizona Diamondbacks
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Corbin Carroll RF 1.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.1 10.0 —
Eugenio Suárez 3B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.1 9.6 —
Pavin Smith 1B 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.1 9.5 —
Geraldo Perdomo SS 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.0 9.1 —
Josh Naylor 1B 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 9.0 —
Alek Thomas CF 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 7.8 —
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.6 —
Tim Tawa 2B 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 7.5 —
Jose Herrera C 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 1.0 6.5 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Merrill Kelly Starter 5.8 5.2 5.6 2.1 3.1 47% 100% 9.3 —