Cincinnati Reds

44% win

pred 5.1

FINAL

Atlanta Braves

56% win

pred 4.3

2025-05-05 Truist Park 0°F

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Alex Verdugo	UTIL	21.0	$3.5k	6.0
Matt Olson	UTIL	18.0	$4.5k	4.0
AJ Smith-Shawver	UTIL	29.0	$7.5k	3.9
Nick Allen	UTIL	5.0	$3.0k	1.7
Luis Mey	UTIL	6.3	$4.0k	1.6
Austin Riley	UTIL	7.0	$4.9k	1.4
Gavin Lux	UTIL	4.0	$3.6k	1.1
Santiago Espinal	UTIL	3.0	$3.2k	0.9
Eli White	UTIL	3.0	$3.2k	0.9
Ozzie Albies	UTIL	3.0	$4.7k	0.6
Spencer Steer	UTIL	2.0	$3.6k	0.6
Enyel De Los Santos	UTIL	3.7	$7.5k	0.5
Brady Singer	UTIL	4.1	$8.8k	0.5
Matt McLain	UTIL	2.0	$4.4k	0.5
Marcell Ozuna	UTIL	2.0	$4.4k	0.5
Tyler Stephenson	UTIL	2.0	$4.5k	0.4
Scott Barlow	UTIL	1.7	$4.0k	0.4

Predictions

Atlanta Braves

ML · Model 56% vs Mkt 57%

-148 · $68 per $100

WIN

Cincinnati Reds +1.5

RL · 2.3 off line

-166 · $60 per $100

LOSS

OVER 8.5

TOTAL · Proj 9.4 vs Line 8.5

-110 · $91 per $100

LOSS

Atlanta Braves ML + Cincinnati Reds +1.5 + OVER 8.5

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+413 · $413 per $100

LOSS

CIN 44% 56% ATL

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	87.9%	12.1%
6.5	82.7%	17.3%
7.5	74.3%	25.7%
8.5	65.4%	34.6%
9.5	54.4%	45.6%
10.5	46.1%	53.9%
11.5	38.4%	61.6%
12.5	32.3%	67.7%

Run Line (margin)

Line	ATL covers	CIN covers
ATL -1.5	36.0%	38.1%
ATL -2.5	25.3%	28.2%
ATL -3.5	17.4%	21.7%

Team Totals

Line	ATL	CIN
O 3.5	65.5%	69.1%
O 4.5	53.3%	56.9%
O 5.5	41.6%	44.7%
O 6.5	31.0%	33.9%

Odds

moneyline ATL 56% · -148 · $68 per $100

Book	CIN	Impl%	ATL	Impl%
DraftKings	+124	42.8%	-148	57.2%

runline Cincinnati Reds +1.5 · -166 · $60 per $100

ATL -1.5: ATL 4.3 − 1.5 = 2.8 vs CIN 5.1 no bet

CIN +1.5: CIN 5.1 + 1.5 = 6.6 vs ATL 4.3 BET ✗

Book	CIN		ATL
DraftKings	+1.5	-166	-1.5	+140

total Over 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 8.5 -115	U 8.5 -105

Player Projections actual (projected)

Cincinnati Reds

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Matt McLain	2B	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.5	1.2	8.1	—
Gavin Lux	2B	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	7.7	—
TJ Friedl	CF	1.1	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.4	1.0	7.6	—
Tyler Stephenson	C	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	7.6	—
Elly De La Cruz	SS	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.4	1.2	7.4	—
Tyler Callihan	LF	0.9	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.0	0.4	0.9	7.3	—
Spencer Steer	1B	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.9	7.1	—
Jake Fraley	RF	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.9	6.7	—
Santiago Espinal	3B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.7	6.1	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Brady Singer	Starter	5.3	5.2	5.6	2.0	3.2	44%	100%	14.1	—

Atlanta Braves

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS
Matt Olson	1B	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.5	1.0	10.5	—
Austin Riley	3B	1.1	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.1	9.4	—
Marcell Ozuna	DH	1.0	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.0	9.0	—
Sean Murphy	C	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.0	0.4	1.0	8.7	—
Alex Verdugo	CF	1.1	0.2	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.9	8.6	—
Ozzie Albies	2B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.8	8.0	—
Michael Harris II	CF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.1	0.3	0.8	7.9	—
Eli White	RF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.0	6.6	—
Nick Allen	SS	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.9	6.1	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
AJ Smith-Shawver	Starter	5.6	5.8	5.8	2.6	3.5	48%	100%	16.4	—