Boston Red Sox
52% win
2
pred 3.6
FINAL
Toronto Blue Jays
48% win
4
pred 4.7
2025-05-01 Rogers Centre 0°F
Top DFS Results
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Daulton Varsho UTIL 16.0 $3.8k 4.2
David Hamilton UTIL 10.0 $2.5k 4.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. UTIL 18.0 $4.8k 3.8
Tanner Houck UTIL 22.8 $7.4k 3.1
José Berríos UTIL 22.2 $8.0k 2.8
Nathan Lukes UTIL 8.0 $3.0k 2.7
Alex Bregman UTIL 9.0 $5.1k 1.8
Mason Fluharty UTIL 7.0 $4.0k 1.8
Bo Bichette UTIL 7.0 $4.3k 1.6
Yimi García UTIL 6.3 $4.0k 1.6
Jarren Duran UTIL 8.0 $5.3k 1.5
Rob Refsnyder UTIL 5.0 $4.0k 1.3
Rafael Devers UTIL 5.0 $4.7k 1.1
Alejandro Kirk UTIL 3.0 $2.9k 1.0
Addison Barger UTIL 2.0 $2.2k 0.9
Triston Casas UTIL 3.0 $3.4k 0.9
Anthony Santander UTIL 3.0 $4.1k 0.7
Trevor Story UTIL 3.0 $4.5k 0.7
Predictions
Boston Red Sox
ML · Model 52% vs Mkt 50%
-112 · $89 per $100
LOSS
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5
RL · 2.6 off line
-180 · $56 per $100
WIN
UNDER 8.5
TOTAL · Proj 8.3 vs Line 8.5
-110 · $91 per $100
WIN
Boston Red Sox ML + Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 + UNDER 8.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+462 · $462 per $100
LOSS
BOS 52% 48% TOR
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 82.2% 17.8%
6.5 75.5% 24.5%
7.5 64.6% 35.4%
8.5 56.0% 44.0%
9.5 45.8% 54.2%
10.5 38.4% 61.6%
11.5 29.9% 70.1%
12.5 25.6% 74.4%
Run Line (margin)
LineTOR coversBOS covers
TOR -1.5 31.7% 41.1%
TOR -2.5 21.2% 29.8%
TOR -3.5 14.1% 21.4%
Team Totals
LineTORBOS
O 3.5 59.2% 67.4%
O 4.5 46.0% 52.0%
O 5.5 34.1% 38.7%
O 6.5 22.4% 28.9%
Odds
moneyline BOS 52% · -112 · $89 per $100
BookBOSImpl%TORImpl%
DraftKings -112 50.4% -108 49.6%
runline Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 · -180 · $56 per $100
BOS -1.5: BOS 3.6 − 1.5 = 2.1 vs TOR 4.7 no bet
TOR +1.5: TOR 4.7 + 1.5 = 6.2 vs BOS 3.6 BET ✓
BookBOSTOR
DraftKings -1.5 +150 +1.5 -180
total Under 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.5 -118 U 8.5 -102
Player Projections actual (projected)
Boston Red Sox
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Rafael Devers DH 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 10.5 —
Wilyer Abreu RF 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 10.4 —
Alex Bregman 3B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 10.0 —
Jarren Duran LF 1.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 9.6 —
Triston Casas 1B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.9 8.4 —
Rob Refsnyder RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 8.1 —
Trevor Story SS 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 1.0 7.8 —
Carlos Narváez C 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.5 —
David Hamilton 2B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.9 6.9 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Tanner Houck Starter 5.8 5.1 6.1 2.0 3.1 50% 100% 13.6 —
Toronto Blue Jays
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 8.9 —
Anthony Santander LF 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 8.1 —
Bo Bichette SS 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 7.8 —
Alejandro Kirk C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 7.4 —
Daulton Varsho CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 7.4 —
Addison Barger 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.3 —
Ernie Clement 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 7.0 —
Nathan Lukes RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.7 6.3 —
Alan Roden LF 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 6.0 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
José Berríos Starter 5.8 5.5 5.9 2.2 3.4 43% 100% 13.9 —