Houston Astros
53% win
7
pred 4.2
FINAL
Kansas City Royals
47% win
3
pred 4.6
2025-04-27 Kauffman Stadium 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Cam Smith OF 6.5 $2.4k 2.7
Zach Dezenzo OF 6.2 $2.3k 2.7
Chas McCormick OF 5.8 $2.2k 2.6
Brendan Rodgers OF 6.8 $2.6k 2.6
Cavan Biggio OF 5.9 $2.3k 2.5
Drew Waters OF 5.9 $2.4k 2.5
Michael Massey OF 6.6 $2.7k 2.5
Yainer Diaz OF 7.3 $3.0k 2.4
Kyle Isbel OF 5.9 $2.5k 2.4
Isaac Paredes OF 8.4 $3.6k 2.3
Jonathan India OF 7.6 $3.3k 2.3
Christian Walker OF 7.4 $3.4k 2.2
Vinnie Pasquantino OF 7.1 $3.3k 2.2
Jeremy Peña OF 7.8 $3.8k 2.1
Hunter Brown SP 18.4 $9.3k 2.0
Kris Bubic SP 18.2 $9.5k 1.9
Yordan Alvarez OF 8.9 $4.9k 1.8
Salvador Perez OF 6.6 $4.2k 1.6
Maikel Garcia OF 6.0 $4.3k 1.4
Bobby Witt Jr. OF 7.3 $6.0k 1.2
Predictions
Houston Astros
ML · Model 53% vs Mkt 56%
-142 · $70 per $100
WIN
Kansas City Royals +1.5
RL · 1.9 off line
-148 · $68 per $100
LOSS
OVER 7.5
TOTAL · Proj 8.7 vs Line 7.5
-110 · $91 per $100
WIN
Houston Astros ML + Kansas City Royals +1.5 + OVER 7.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+445 · $445 per $100
LOSS
HOU 53% 47% KC
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 79.7% 20.3%
6.5 71.3% 28.7%
7.5 62.3% 37.7%
8.5 52.3% 47.7%
9.5 41.2% 58.8%
10.5 35.8% 64.2%
11.5 27.2% 72.8%
12.5 20.9% 79.1%
Run Line (margin)
LineKC coversHOU covers
KC -1.5 31.1% 42.2%
KC -2.5 21.1% 31.9%
KC -3.5 14.4% 24.4%
Team Totals
LineKCHOU
O 3.5 54.1% 64.4%
O 4.5 42.1% 51.5%
O 5.5 30.1% 38.4%
O 6.5 20.8% 26.9%
Odds
moneyline HOU 53% · -142 · $70 per $100
BookHOUImpl%KCImpl%
DraftKings -142 56.3% +120 43.7%
runline Kansas City Royals +1.5 · -148 · $68 per $100
HOU -1.5: HOU 4.2 − 1.5 = 2.7 vs KC 4.6 no bet
KC +1.5: KC 4.6 + 1.5 = 6.1 vs HOU 4.2 BET ✗
BookHOUKC
DraftKings -1.5 +124 +1.5 -148
total Over 7.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 7.5 -105 U 7.5 -115
Player Projections actual (projected)
Houston Astros
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Yordan Alvarez LF 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 8.9 —
Isaac Paredes 3B 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.9 8.4 —
Jeremy Peña SS 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.0 7.8 —
Christian Walker 1B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 7.4 —
Yainer Diaz C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.3 —
Brendan Rodgers 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 6.8 —
Cam Smith RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 6.5 —
Zach Dezenzo 1B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 6.2 —
Chas McCormick CF 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 5.8 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Hunter Brown Starter 5.5 5.4 5.3 1.9 2.6 49% 100% 18.4 —
Kansas City Royals
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Jonathan India 2B 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 7.6 —
Bobby Witt Jr. SS 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.0 7.3 —
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 7.1 —
Michael Massey 2B 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 6.6 —
Salvador Perez C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 6.6 —
Maikel Garcia 3B 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.9 6.0 —
Drew Waters RF 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.1 5.9 —
Kyle Isbel CF 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 5.9 —
Cavan Biggio 3B 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 1.0 5.9 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Kris Bubic Starter 6.1 6.2 6.1 2.4 3.2 45% 100% 18.2 —