San Diego Padres
38% win
8
pred 4.7
FINAL
Chicago Cubs
62% win
7
pred 4.3
2025-04-06 Wrigley Field 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Jason Heyward OF 7.1 $2.6k 2.7
Justin Turner OF 8.9 $3.3k 2.7
Elias Díaz OF 5.9 $2.2k 2.7
Gavin Sheets OF 6.2 $2.4k 2.6
Ben Brown SP 16.8 $7.3k 2.3
Luis Arraez OF 7.1 $3.4k 2.1
Carson Kelly OF 5.6 $2.7k 2.1
Ian Happ OF 8.9 $4.7k 1.9
Jake Cronenworth OF 7.0 $3.7k 1.9
Fernando Tatis Jr. OF 10.2 $5.4k 1.9
Seiya Suzuki OF 9.6 $5.2k 1.9
Kyle Hart SP 11.9 $6.5k 1.8
Pete Crow-Armstrong OF 7.0 $3.8k 1.8
Manny Machado OF 8.6 $4.9k 1.8
Dansby Swanson OF 8.1 $4.6k 1.8
Matt Shaw OF 6.8 $4.0k 1.7
Jackson Merrill OF 8.7 $5.2k 1.7
Nico Hoerner OF 7.1 $4.4k 1.6
Xander Bogaerts OF 6.5 $4.1k 1.6
Kyle Tucker OF 9.1 $6.2k 1.5
Best Bets
Chicago Cubs
ML ★ · +7.3% edge
-135 · $100 bet · $74 profit
Model: 62% vs Market: 55%
LOSS
OVER 7.5
TOTAL ★ · +1.5 off line
-110 · $100 bet · $91 profit
Model: 9.0 vs Line: 7.5
WIN
Chicago Cubs + OVER 7.5
SGP ★ · 2-leg same-game parlay
+232 · $100 bet · $232 profit
LOSS
Predictions
Chicago Cubs
ML · Model 62% vs Mkt 55%
-135 · $74 per $100
LOSS
San Diego Padres +1.5
RL · 1.9 off line
-192 · $52 per $100
WIN
OVER 7.5
TOTAL · Proj 9.0 vs Line 7.5
-110 · $91 per $100
WIN
Chicago Cubs ML + San Diego Padres +1.5 + OVER 7.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+405 · $405 per $100
LOSS
SD 38% 62% CHC
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 91.2% 8.8%
6.5 86.9% 13.1%
7.5 80.3% 19.7%
8.5 73.0% 27.0%
9.5 61.4% 38.6%
10.5 54.1% 45.9%
11.5 44.9% 55.1%
12.5 36.9% 63.1%
Run Line (margin)
LineCHC coversSD covers
CHC -1.5 49.0% 28.0%
CHC -2.5 35.9% 22.7%
CHC -3.5 27.7% 16.6%
Team Totals
LineCHCSD
O 3.5 78.1% 66.2%
O 4.5 67.1% 53.9%
O 5.5 55.3% 43.6%
O 6.5 43.4% 32.1%
Odds
moneyline CHC 62% · -135 · $74 per $100
BookSDImpl%CHCImpl%
DraftKings +114 44.9% -135 55.1%
runline San Diego Padres +1.5 · -192 · $52 per $100
CHC -1.5: CHC 4.3 − 1.5 = 2.8 vs SD 4.7 no bet
SD +1.5: SD 4.7 + 1.5 = 6.2 vs CHC 4.3 BET ✓
BookSDCHC
DraftKings +1.5 -192 -1.5 +160
total Over 7.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 7.5 -102 U 7.5 -118
Player Projections actual (projected)
San Diego Padres
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.1 10.2 —
Jackson Merrill CF 1.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.9 8.7 —
Manny Machado 3B 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 8.6 —
Jason Heyward RF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.9 7.1 —
Luis Arraez IF 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 7.1 —
Jake Cronenworth 2B 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 7.0 —
Xander Bogaerts SS 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.9 6.5 —
Gavin Sheets LF 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 6.2 —
Elias Díaz C 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 5.9 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Kyle Hart Starter 4.6 4.5 5.8 2.4 3.9 29% 100% 11.9 —
Chicago Cubs
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Seiya Suzuki RF 1.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.5 1.1 9.6 —
Kyle Tucker RF 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.7 9.1 —
Ian Happ LF 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.5 1.1 8.9 —
Justin Turner 3B 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 8.9 —
Dansby Swanson SS 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.9 8.1 —
Nico Hoerner 2B 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 7.1 —
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.9 7.0 —
Matt Shaw 3B 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.8 6.8 —
Carson Kelly C 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 5.6 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Ben Brown Starter 5.2 5.0 5.4 2.0 2.9 51% 100% 16.8 —