New York Mets
36% win
1
pred 4.8
FINAL
Houston Astros
64% win
3
pred 4.8
2025-03-27 Daikin Park 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Brendan Rodgers OF 6.0 $2.0k 3.0
Luis Torrens OF 5.6 $2.1k 2.7
Framber Valdez SP 21.8 $8.3k 2.6
Cam Smith OF 5.9 $2.4k 2.5
Tyrone Taylor OF 6.1 $2.6k 2.4
Luisangel Acuña OF 7.0 $3.1k 2.3
Jake Meyers OF 5.8 $2.8k 2.1
Jeremy Peña OF 6.7 $3.4k 2.0
Yainer Diaz OF 7.5 $4.0k 1.9
Isaac Paredes OF 7.6 $4.2k 1.8
Clay Holmes SP 10.8 $6.0k 1.8
Christian Walker OF 8.3 $4.7k 1.8
Yordan Alvarez OF 9.9 $5.6k 1.8
Starling Marte OF 6.2 $3.5k 1.8
Pete Alonso OF 8.4 $4.9k 1.7
Francisco Lindor OF 9.3 $5.4k 1.7
Brandon Nimmo OF 6.5 $4.0k 1.6
Mark Vientos OF 7.2 $4.5k 1.6
Juan Soto OF 9.1 $6.0k 1.5
Jose Altuve OF 7.6 $5.0k 1.5
Best Bets
Houston Astros
ML ★★★ ELITE · +10.0% edge
-130 · $300 bet · $231 profit
Model: 64% vs Market: 54%
WIN
OVER 8.0
TOTAL ★ · +1.5 off line
-110 · $100 bet · $91 profit
Model: 9.5 vs Line: 8.0
LOSS
Houston Astros + OVER 8.0
SGP ★★★ ELITE · 2-leg same-game parlay
+238 · $300 bet · $714 profit
LOSS
Predictions
Houston Astros
ML · Model 64% vs Mkt 54%
-130 · $77 per $100
WIN
New York Mets +1.5
RL · 1.5 off line
-192 · $52 per $100
LOSS
OVER 8.0
TOTAL · Proj 9.5 vs Line 8.0
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Houston Astros ML + New York Mets +1.5 + OVER 8.0
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+414 · $414 per $100
LOSS
NYM 36% 64% HOU
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 91.6% 8.4%
6.5 89.3% 10.7%
7.5 85.2% 14.8%
8.5 80.7% 19.3%
9.5 74.9% 25.1%
10.5 69.8% 30.2%
11.5 61.4% 38.6%
12.5 54.6% 45.4%
Run Line (margin)
LineHOU coversNYM covers
HOU -1.5 34.1% 44.5%
HOU -2.5 25.8% 36.6%
HOU -3.5 18.6% 29.8%
Team Totals
LineHOUNYM
O 3.5 75.2% 79.4%
O 4.5 65.5% 69.4%
O 5.5 55.6% 60.6%
O 6.5 45.7% 53.1%
Odds
moneyline HOU 64% · -130 · $77 per $100
BookNYMImpl%HOUImpl%
DraftKings +110 45.7% -130 54.3%
runline New York Mets +1.5 · -192 · $52 per $100
HOU -1.5: HOU 4.8 − 1.5 = 3.3 vs NYM 4.8 no bet
NYM +1.5: NYM 4.8 + 1.5 = 6.3 vs HOU 4.8 BET ✗
BookNYMHOU
DraftKings +1.5 -192 -1.5 +160
total Over 8.0 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.0 -102 U 8.0 -118
Player Projections actual (projected)
New York Mets
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Francisco Lindor SS 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.9 9.3 —
Juan Soto RF 1.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.6 1.0 9.1 —
Pete Alonso 1B 0.9 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 8.4 —
Mark Vientos 3B 1.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 7.2 —
Luisangel Acuña 2B 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.0 —
Brandon Nimmo LF 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.4 1.0 6.5 —
Starling Marte LF 0.9 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.9 6.2 —
Tyrone Taylor CF 0.9 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.9 6.1 —
Luis Torrens C 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 5.6 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Clay Holmes Starter 8.8 9.0 10.6 4.3 6.5 53% 100% 10.8 —
Houston Astros
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Yordan Alvarez LF 1.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 9.9 —
Christian Walker 1B 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.4 1.0 8.3 —
Isaac Paredes 3B 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 7.6 —
Jose Altuve LF 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.4 1.0 7.6 —
Yainer Diaz C 1.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 7.5 —
Jeremy Peña SS 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 6.7 —
Brendan Rodgers 2B 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 6.0 —
Cam Smith RF 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 5.9 —
Jake Meyers CF 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 5.8 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Framber Valdez Starter 9.1 9.4 11.4 4.4 7.5 47% 100% 21.8 —