Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays — 2025-05-19 | AI Sports Metrics

53% win

4

pred 5.3

FINAL

47% win

3

pred 4.2

2025-05-19 George M. Steinbrenner Field 0°F

Top DFS Plays

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Curtis Mead	OF	7.1	$2.0k	3.6
Danny Jansen	OF	8.5	$2.5k	3.4
Yandy Díaz	OF	12.0	$4.3k	2.8
Christian Walker	OF	9.3	$3.4k	2.7
Victor Caratini	OF	7.4	$2.8k	2.6
Junior Caminero	OF	11.0	$4.2k	2.6
Yainer Diaz	OF	7.6	$3.0k	2.5
Chas McCormick	OF	6.0	$2.4k	2.5
Brandon Lowe	OF	9.8	$3.9k	2.5
Christopher Morel	OF	9.3	$3.7k	2.5
Taylor Walls	OF	6.6	$2.9k	2.3
Isaac Paredes	OF	8.3	$3.7k	2.2
Ryan Pepiot	SP	17.3	$7.8k	2.2
José Caballero	OF	7.6	$3.6k	2.1
Cam Smith	OF	6.2	$3.0k	2.1
Jeremy Peña	OF	8.4	$4.1k	2.0
Jake Meyers	OF	7.0	$3.5k	2.0
Jose Altuve	OF	7.6	$4.0k	1.9
Kameron Misner	OF	6.6	$3.5k	1.9
Colton Gordon	SP	11.0	$6.0k	1.8

Best Bets

Houston Astros

ML ★ · +7.7% edge

+114 · $100 bet · $114 profit

Model: 53% vs Market: 45%

WIN

Predictions

Houston Astros

ML · Model 53% vs Mkt 45%

+114 · $114 per $100

WIN

Houston Astros +1.5

RL · 2.5 off line

-180 · $56 per $100

WIN

OVER 9.0

TOTAL · Proj 9.5 vs Line 9.0

-110 · $91 per $100

LOSS

Houston Astros ML + Houston Astros +1.5 + OVER 9.0

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+536 · $536 per $100

LOSS

HOU 53% 47% TB

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	78.4%	21.6%
6.5	70.3%	29.7%
7.5	60.2%	39.8%
8.5	52.8%	47.2%
9.5	41.8%	58.2%
10.5	34.4%	65.6%
11.5	27.1%	72.9%
12.5	20.2%	79.8%

Run Line (margin)

Line	TB covers	HOU covers
TB -1.5	31.7%	39.4%
TB -2.5	21.7%	29.4%
TB -3.5	15.4%	22.8%

Team Totals

Line	TB	HOU
O 3.5	56.4%	61.2%
O 4.5	42.2%	47.5%
O 5.5	28.9%	37.4%
O 6.5	21.3%	26.7%

Odds

moneyline HOU 53% · +114 · $114 per $100

Book	HOU	Impl%	TB	Impl%
DraftKings	+114	44.9%	-135	55.1%

runline Houston Astros +1.5 · -180 · $56 per $100

TB -1.5: TB 4.2 − 1.5 = 2.7 vs HOU 5.3 no bet

HOU +1.5: HOU 5.3 + 1.5 = 6.8 vs TB 4.2 BET ✓

Book	HOU		TB
DraftKings	+1.5	-180	-1.5	+150

total Over 9.0 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 9.0 -105	U 9.0 -115

Player Projections actual (projected)

Houston Astros

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Christian Walker	1B	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.3	1.0	9.3	—
Jeremy Peña	SS	1.1	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.3	1.0	8.4	—
Isaac Paredes	3B	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.5	0.9	8.3	—
Yainer Diaz	C	1.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.2	0.9	7.6	—
Jose Altuve	LF	0.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.9	7.6	—
Victor Caratini	C	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	0.9	7.4	—
Jake Meyers	CF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	0.9	7.0	—
Cam Smith	RF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.4	1.0	6.2	—
Chas McCormick	CF	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.3	1.0	6.0	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Colton Gordon	Starter	5.5	5.4	4.8	2.0	2.6	49%	100%	11.0	—

Tampa Bay Rays

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Yandy Díaz	1B	1.1	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.7	12.0	—
Junior Caminero	3B	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.2	0.8	11.0	—
Brandon Lowe	2B	0.8	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.2	9.8	—
Christopher Morel	CF	0.8	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.3	9.3	—
Danny Jansen	C	0.7	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.5	0.8	8.5	—
José Caballero	SS	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.4	1.2	7.6	—
Curtis Mead	1B	0.8	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.3	1.0	7.1	—
Kameron Misner	LF	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	1.1	6.6	—
Taylor Walls	SS	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.4	1.0	6.6	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Ryan Pepiot	Starter	6.0	5.7	5.6	2.1	3.0	44%	100%	17.3	—