Pittsburgh Pirates
25% win
2
pred 5.3
FINAL
Philadelphia Phillies
75% win
5
pred 3.4
2025-05-17 Citizens Bank Park 0°F
Top DFS Results
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Enrique Hernández UTIL 27.0 $3.2k 8.4
Dalton Rushing UTIL 14.0 $2.4k 5.8
Andy Pages UTIL 21.0 $4.2k 5.0
Michael Conforto UTIL 9.0 $3.1k 2.9
Freddie Freeman UTIL 16.0 $6.3k 2.5
Mookie Betts UTIL 12.0 $5.7k 2.1
Tanner Scott UTIL 6.3 $4.0k 1.6
Max Muncy UTIL 5.0 $3.3k 1.5
Miguel Rojas UTIL 3.0 $2.5k 1.2
Will Smith UTIL 3.0 $4.6k 0.7
Ben Casparius UTIL 3.5 $7.6k 0.5
Predictions
Philadelphia Phillies
ML · Model 75% vs Mkt 72%
-305 · $33 per $100
WIN
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
RL · 3.4 off line
+124 · $124 per $100
LOSS
OVER 8.5
TOTAL · Proj 8.7 vs Line 8.5
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Philadelphia Phillies ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + OVER 8.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+468 · $468 per $100
LOSS
PIT 25% 75% PHI
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 83.3% 16.7%
6.5 76.6% 23.4%
7.5 65.2% 34.8%
8.5 56.9% 43.1%
9.5 48.4% 51.6%
10.5 39.3% 60.7%
11.5 31.2% 68.8%
12.5 23.8% 76.2%
Run Line (margin)
LinePHI coversPIT covers
PHI -1.5 45.5% 29.9%
PHI -2.5 33.8% 20.8%
PHI -3.5 24.9% 13.9%
Team Totals
LinePHIPIT
O 3.5 70.0% 57.4%
O 4.5 55.0% 45.9%
O 5.5 41.6% 33.8%
O 6.5 30.7% 21.4%
Odds
moneyline PHI 75% · -305 · $33 per $100
BookPITImpl%PHIImpl%
DraftKings +245 27.8% -305 72.2%
runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · +124 · $124 per $100
PHI -1.5: PHI 3.4 − 1.5 = 1.9 vs PIT 5.3 no bet
PIT +1.5: PIT 5.3 + 1.5 = 6.8 vs PHI 3.4 BET ✗
BookPITPHI
DraftKings +1.5 +124 -1.5 -148
total Over 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.5 -118 U 8.5 -102
Player Projections actual (projected)
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Oneil Cruz CF 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.4 9.0 —
Andrew McCutchen RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.2 7.4 —
Spencer Horwitz 1B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 6.8 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.2 6.5 —
Joey Bart C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.2 6.3 —
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 1.0 6.1 —
Nick Solak 2B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 5.8 —
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 5.6 —
Adam Frazier 2B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 5.5 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Carmen Mlodzinski Starter 5.2 4.7 5.7 2.0 3.3 35% 100% 9.7 —
Philadelphia Phillies
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Kyle Schwarber LF 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 12.3 —
Bryce Harper 1B 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.9 10.0 —
Nick Castellanos RF 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.9 9.3 —
Trea Turner SS 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.9 9.0 —
Bryson Stott 2B 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 8.4 —
Brandon Marsh CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 8.4 —
J.T. Realmuto C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 8.4 —
Max Kepler RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 8.3 —
Alec Bohm 3B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 7.3 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Zack Wheeler Starter 6.5 7.0 6.1 2.0 3.0 58% 100% 25.6 —