Atlanta Braves
56% win
3
pred 3.9
FINAL
Pittsburgh Pirates
44% win
4
pred 5.6
2025-05-11 PNC Park 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Drake Baldwin OF 10.2 $3.4k 3.0
Alexander Canario OF 6.3 $2.3k 2.8
Matt Gorski OF 6.0 $2.2k 2.7
Liover Peguero OF 5.3 $2.0k 2.7
Alex Verdugo OF 9.4 $3.7k 2.5
Tommy Pham OF 6.3 $2.5k 2.5
Chris Sale SP 23.8 $9.6k 2.5
Jared Triolo OF 5.9 $2.4k 2.4
Nick Allen OF 6.8 $3.1k 2.2
Matt Olson OF 10.6 $5.0k 2.1
Carmen Mlodzinski SP 10.4 $5.0k 2.1
Marcell Ozuna OF 9.7 $4.7k 2.1
Ke'Bryan Hayes OF 7.2 $3.5k 2.1
Eli White OF 7.1 $3.5k 2.0
Michael Harris II OF 8.0 $4.0k 2.0
Austin Riley OF 10.6 $5.3k 2.0
Bryan Reynolds OF 7.0 $3.8k 1.8
Andrew McCutchen OF 7.3 $4.0k 1.8
Joey Bart OF 6.7 $3.7k 1.8
Ozzie Albies OF 8.2 $4.8k 1.7
Best Bets
OVER 8.0
TOTAL ★ · +1.5 off line
-110 · $100 bet · $91 profit
Model: 9.5 vs Line: 8.0
LOSS
Predictions
Atlanta Braves
ML · Model 56% vs Mkt 66%
-225 · $44 per $100
LOSS
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
RL · 3.2 off line
+114 · $114 per $100
WIN
OVER 8.0
TOTAL · Proj 9.5 vs Line 8.0
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Atlanta Braves ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + OVER 8.0
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+490 · $490 per $100
LOSS
ATL 56% 44% PIT
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 83.0% 17.0%
6.5 76.4% 23.6%
7.5 65.6% 34.4%
8.5 57.8% 42.2%
9.5 47.4% 52.6%
10.5 39.6% 60.4%
11.5 31.7% 68.3%
12.5 24.4% 75.6%
Run Line (margin)
LinePIT coversATL covers
PIT -1.5 26.1% 46.4%
PIT -2.5 16.2% 36.3%
PIT -3.5 12.5% 27.1%
Team Totals
LinePITATL
O 3.5 58.4% 69.3%
O 4.5 44.4% 56.7%
O 5.5 30.5% 44.0%
O 6.5 19.8% 34.2%
Odds
moneyline ATL 56% · -225 · $44 per $100
BookATLImpl%PITImpl%
DraftKings -225 66.3% +185 33.7%
runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · +114 · $114 per $100
ATL -1.5: ATL 3.9 − 1.5 = 2.4 vs PIT 5.6 no bet
PIT +1.5: PIT 5.6 + 1.5 = 7.1 vs ATL 3.9 BET ✓
BookATLPIT
DraftKings -1.5 -135 +1.5 +114
total Over 8.0 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.0 -120 U 8.0 +100
Player Projections actual (projected)
Atlanta Braves
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Austin Riley 3B 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 10.6 —
Matt Olson 1B 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 10.6 —
Drake Baldwin C 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 10.2 —
Marcell Ozuna DH 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 9.7 —
Alex Verdugo CF 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.8 9.4 —
Ozzie Albies 2B 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 8.2 —
Michael Harris II CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 8.0 —
Eli White RF 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 7.1 —
Nick Allen SS 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 6.8 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Chris Sale Starter 6.0 7.2 5.8 2.0 2.9 56% 100% 23.8 —
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Andrew McCutchen RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.1 7.3 —
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.2 7.2 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.2 7.0 —
Joey Bart C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.2 6.7 —
Alexander Canario CF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 6.3 —
Tommy Pham LF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.1 6.3 —
Matt Gorski 1B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.2 1.4 6.0 —
Jared Triolo SS 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 5.9 —
Liover Peguero SS 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.2 5.3 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Carmen Mlodzinski Starter 5.2 4.6 5.7 2.0 3.1 37% 100% 10.4 —