Atlanta Braves
48% win
3
pred 4.3
FINAL
Pittsburgh Pirates
52% win
2
pred 5.1
2025-05-10 PNC Park 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Matt Gorski OF 6.5 $2.0k 3.3
Jared Triolo OF 6.8 $2.2k 3.1
Alexander Canario OF 6.4 $2.2k 2.9
Nick Allen OF 7.1 $2.9k 2.4
Alex Verdugo OF 8.6 $3.6k 2.4
Michael Harris II OF 8.8 $3.7k 2.4
Ke'Bryan Hayes OF 8.0 $3.5k 2.3
Bryan Reynolds OF 8.4 $3.7k 2.3
Adam Frazier OF 6.5 $2.9k 2.2
Marcell Ozuna OF 9.7 $4.4k 2.2
Austin Riley OF 10.9 $5.1k 2.1
Eli White OF 7.2 $3.4k 2.1
Matt Olson OF 9.6 $4.6k 2.1
Andrew McCutchen OF 8.1 $4.0k 2.0
Sean Murphy OF 8.7 $4.5k 1.9
Joey Bart OF 7.1 $3.8k 1.9
Ozzie Albies OF 8.6 $4.8k 1.8
AJ Smith-Shawver SP 14.8 $8.6k 1.7
Oneil Cruz OF 10.0 $5.9k 1.7
Andrew Heaney SP 12.6 $7.8k 1.6
Best Bets
Pittsburgh Pirates
ML ★★★ ELITE · +10.1% edge
+130 · $300 bet · $390 profit
Model: 52% vs Market: 42%
LOSS
Predictions
Pittsburgh Pirates
ML · Model 52% vs Mkt 42%
+130 · $130 per $100
LOSS
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
RL · 2.3 off line
-125 · $80 per $100
WIN
OVER 9.0
TOTAL · Proj 9.3 vs Line 9.0
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Pittsburgh Pirates ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + OVER 9.0
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+690 · $690 per $100
LOSS
ATL 48% 52% PIT
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 83.5% 16.5%
6.5 77.2% 22.8%
7.5 67.5% 32.5%
8.5 59.0% 41.0%
9.5 47.3% 52.7%
10.5 39.5% 60.5%
11.5 30.6% 69.4%
12.5 24.0% 76.0%
Run Line (margin)
LinePIT coversATL covers
PIT -1.5 28.7% 45.2%
PIT -2.5 19.1% 36.4%
PIT -3.5 12.7% 26.3%
Team Totals
LinePITATL
O 3.5 56.9% 68.7%
O 4.5 43.5% 56.8%
O 5.5 30.0% 43.3%
O 6.5 19.7% 32.1%
Odds
moneyline PIT 52% · +130 · $130 per $100
BookATLImpl%PITImpl%
DraftKings -155 58.3% +130 41.7%
runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · -125 · $80 per $100
ATL -1.5: ATL 4.3 − 1.5 = 2.8 vs PIT 5.1 no bet
PIT +1.5: PIT 5.1 + 1.5 = 6.6 vs ATL 4.3 BET ✓
BookATLPIT
DraftKings -1.5 +105 +1.5 -125
total Over 9.0 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 9.0 -112 U 9.0 -108
Player Projections actual (projected)
Atlanta Braves
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Austin Riley 3B 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.1 10.9 —
Marcell Ozuna DH 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 9.7 —
Matt Olson 1B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 9.6 —
Michael Harris II CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 8.8 —
Sean Murphy C 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 8.7 —
Alex Verdugo CF 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 8.6 —
Ozzie Albies 2B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.8 8.6 —
Eli White RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.0 7.2 —
Nick Allen SS 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 7.1 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
AJ Smith-Shawver Starter 6.3 6.5 5.5 2.6 3.1 55% 100% 14.8 —
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Oneil Cruz CF 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.2 10.0 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 8.4 —
Andrew McCutchen RF 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.9 8.1 —
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 8.0 —
Joey Bart C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 7.1 —
Jared Triolo SS 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.8 6.8 —
Matt Gorski 1B 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.2 6.5 —
Adam Frazier 2B 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.7 6.5 —
Alexander Canario CF 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 1.1 6.4 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Andrew Heaney Starter 5.9 5.6 6.1 2.2 3.4 40% 100% 12.6 —