Atlanta Braves
55% win
2
pred 3.8
FINAL
Pittsburgh Pirates
45% win
3
pred 4.5
2025-05-09 PNC Park 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Matt Gorski OF 7.7 $2.0k 3.9
Stuart Fairchild OF 7.6 $2.0k 3.8
Jared Triolo OF 6.4 $2.2k 2.9
Alexander Canario OF 7.0 $2.5k 2.8
Adam Frazier OF 7.2 $2.9k 2.5
Marcell Ozuna OF 10.6 $4.5k 2.4
Eli White OF 7.7 $3.3k 2.3
Ke'Bryan Hayes OF 7.9 $3.4k 2.3
Nick Allen OF 6.9 $3.0k 2.3
Bryan Reynolds OF 8.0 $3.5k 2.3
Michael Harris II OF 8.8 $3.9k 2.3
Austin Riley OF 11.0 $5.0k 2.2
Joey Bart OF 7.7 $3.6k 2.1
Ozzie Albies OF 9.3 $4.6k 2.0
Andrew McCutchen OF 8.5 $4.2k 2.0
Sean Murphy OF 9.0 $4.5k 2.0
Matt Olson OF 9.6 $4.8k 2.0
Bryce Elder SP 13.8 $7.0k 2.0
Bailey Falter SP 10.9 $6.6k 1.7
Oneil Cruz OF 9.7 $6.0k 1.6
Predictions
Atlanta Braves
ML · Model 55% vs Mkt 57%
-148 · $68 per $100
LOSS
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
RL · 2.2 off line
-135 · $74 per $100
WIN
UNDER 8.5
TOTAL · Proj 8.3 vs Line 8.5
-110 · $91 per $100
WIN
Atlanta Braves ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + UNDER 8.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+457 · $457 per $100
LOSS
ATL 55% 45% PIT
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 84.8% 15.2%
6.5 78.8% 21.2%
7.5 69.9% 30.1%
8.5 61.8% 38.2%
9.5 51.2% 48.8%
10.5 42.9% 57.1%
11.5 33.9% 66.1%
12.5 27.4% 72.6%
Run Line (margin)
LinePIT coversATL covers
PIT -1.5 33.4% 40.5%
PIT -2.5 24.3% 30.1%
PIT -3.5 16.9% 21.9%
Team Totals
LinePITATL
O 3.5 64.7% 66.8%
O 4.5 50.6% 54.0%
O 5.5 38.0% 42.2%
O 6.5 25.7% 31.5%
Odds
moneyline ATL 55% · -148 · $68 per $100
BookATLImpl%PITImpl%
DraftKings -148 57.2% +124 42.8%
runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · -135 · $74 per $100
ATL -1.5: ATL 3.8 − 1.5 = 2.3 vs PIT 4.5 no bet
PIT +1.5: PIT 4.5 + 1.5 = 6.0 vs ATL 3.8 BET ✓
BookATLPIT
DraftKings -1.5 +114 +1.5 -135
total Under 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.5 -122 U 8.5 +102
Player Projections actual (projected)
Atlanta Braves
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Austin Riley 3B 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 11.0 —
Marcell Ozuna DH 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 10.6 —
Matt Olson 1B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 9.6 —
Ozzie Albies 2B 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 9.3 —
Sean Murphy C 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 9.0 —
Michael Harris II CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 8.8 —
Eli White RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 7.7 —
Stuart Fairchild LF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 7.6 —
Nick Allen SS 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 6.9 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Bryce Elder Starter 5.7 5.3 6.0 2.4 3.3 48% 100% 13.8 —
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Oneil Cruz CF 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.1 9.7 —
Andrew McCutchen RF 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 8.5 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 8.0 —
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 7.9 —
Matt Gorski 1B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 7.7 —
Joey Bart C 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.0 7.7 —
Adam Frazier 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.6 7.2 —
Alexander Canario CF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 7.0 —
Jared Triolo SS 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 6.4 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Bailey Falter Starter 5.4 4.9 5.7 1.9 3.2 44% 100% 10.9 —