Pittsburgh Pirates
44% win
0
pred 4.4
FINAL
St. Louis Cardinals
56% win
5
pred 3.6
2025-05-07 Busch Stadium 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Alec Burleson OF 7.9 $2.8k 2.8
Liover Peguero OF 5.6 $2.0k 2.8
Sonny Gray SP 20.4 $8.2k 2.5
Masyn Winn OF 8.0 $3.2k 2.5
Jordan Walker OF 7.7 $3.1k 2.5
Enmanuel Valdez OF 7.7 $3.3k 2.3
Willson Contreras OF 8.2 $3.5k 2.3
Nolan Gorman OF 7.6 $3.3k 2.3
Tommy Pham OF 6.2 $2.7k 2.3
Pedro Pagés OF 6.7 $3.0k 2.3
Lars Nootbaar OF 10.0 $4.5k 2.2
Adam Frazier OF 6.2 $3.0k 2.1
Brendan Donovan OF 8.7 $4.4k 2.0
Mitch Keller SP 12.7 $6.5k 2.0
Ke'Bryan Hayes OF 6.8 $3.5k 1.9
Bryan Reynolds OF 7.0 $3.7k 1.9
Joey Bart OF 6.6 $3.6k 1.8
Andrew McCutchen OF 7.2 $4.2k 1.7
Victor Scott II OF 6.6 $4.1k 1.6
Oneil Cruz OF 9.1 $5.9k 1.6
Predictions
St. Louis Cardinals
ML · Model 56% vs Mkt 62%
-185 · $54 per $100
WIN
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
RL · 2.3 off line
-142 · $70 per $100
LOSS
OVER 7.5
TOTAL · Proj 7.9 vs Line 7.5
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
St. Louis Cardinals ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + OVER 7.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+401 · $401 per $100
LOSS
PIT 44% 56% STL
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 82.6% 17.4%
6.5 74.1% 25.9%
7.5 63.0% 37.0%
8.5 55.4% 44.6%
9.5 44.5% 55.5%
10.5 37.2% 62.8%
11.5 28.8% 71.2%
12.5 21.8% 78.2%
Run Line (margin)
LineSTL coversPIT covers
STL -1.5 36.6% 36.0%
STL -2.5 25.2% 25.7%
STL -3.5 18.0% 17.8%
Team Totals
LineSTLPIT
O 3.5 63.6% 61.5%
O 4.5 48.8% 46.5%
O 5.5 35.0% 35.1%
O 6.5 22.9% 25.0%
Odds
moneyline STL 56% · -185 · $54 per $100
BookPITImpl%STLImpl%
DraftKings +154 37.8% -185 62.2%
runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · -142 · $70 per $100
STL -1.5: STL 3.6 − 1.5 = 2.1 vs PIT 4.4 no bet
PIT +1.5: PIT 4.4 + 1.5 = 5.9 vs STL 3.6 BET ✗
BookPITSTL
DraftKings +1.5 -142 -1.5 +120
total Over 7.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 7.5 -108 U 7.5 -112
Player Projections actual (projected)
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Oneil Cruz CF 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.3 9.1 —
Enmanuel Valdez 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.7 —
Andrew McCutchen RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 7.2 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 1.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.1 7.0 —
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.0 6.8 —
Joey Bart C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.1 6.6 —
Adam Frazier 2B 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 6.2 —
Tommy Pham LF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 6.2 —
Liover Peguero SS 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 5.6 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Mitch Keller Starter 6.1 5.5 6.3 2.2 3.4 45% 100% 12.7 —
St. Louis Cardinals
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Lars Nootbaar RF 1.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.9 10.0 —
Brendan Donovan 2B 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 8.7 —
Willson Contreras 1B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 8.2 —
Masyn Winn SS 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 8.0 —
Alec Burleson 1B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 7.9 —
Jordan Walker RF 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 7.7 —
Nolan Gorman 2B 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 7.6 —
Pedro Pagés C 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 6.7 —
Victor Scott II CF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 6.6 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Sonny Gray Starter 6.1 6.4 6.0 2.2 3.0 49% 100% 20.4 —