San Diego Padres
48% win
4
pred 4
FINAL
Pittsburgh Pirates
52% win
0
pred 4.7
2025-05-04 PNC Park 0°F
Top DFS Results
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Elias Díaz UTIL 17.0 $2.9k 5.9
Matt Gorski UTIL 11.0 $2.0k 5.5
Xander Bogaerts UTIL 21.0 $3.9k 5.4
Stephen Kolek UTIL 20.4 $4.0k 5.1
Manny Machado UTIL 20.0 $4.6k 4.4
Brandon Lockridge UTIL 7.0 $2.2k 3.2
Joey Bart UTIL 8.0 $3.6k 2.2
Tommy Pham UTIL 6.0 $2.9k 2.1
Luis Campusano UTIL 4.0 $2.0k 2.0
Luis Arraez UTIL 8.0 $4.0k 2.0
Ke'Bryan Hayes UTIL 6.0 $3.3k 1.8
Tanner Rainey UTIL 6.3 $4.0k 1.6
Colin Holderman UTIL 6.1 $4.0k 1.5
Jason Adam UTIL 5.1 $4.0k 1.3
Jeremiah Estrada UTIL 4.9 $4.0k 1.2
Wandy Peralta UTIL 4.3 $4.0k 1.1
Dennis Santana UTIL 4.3 $4.0k 1.1
Jared Triolo UTIL 2.0 $2.1k 1.0
Adrian Morejon UTIL 5.7 $8.5k 0.7
Bryan Reynolds UTIL 2.0 $3.8k 0.5
Joey Wentz UTIL 1.7 $6.7k 0.3
Predictions
Pittsburgh Pirates
ML · Model 52% vs Mkt 53%
-122 · $82 per $100
LOSS
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
RL · 2.2 off line
-185 · $54 per $100
LOSS
UNDER 9.0
TOTAL · Proj 8.7 vs Line 9.0
-110 · $91 per $100
WIN
Pittsburgh Pirates ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + UNDER 9.0
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+435 · $435 per $100
LOSS
SD 48% 52% PIT
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 83.1% 16.9%
6.5 76.0% 24.0%
7.5 65.2% 34.8%
8.5 57.4% 42.6%
9.5 48.0% 52.0%
10.5 38.5% 61.5%
11.5 29.0% 71.0%
12.5 22.9% 77.1%
Run Line (margin)
LinePIT coversSD covers
PIT -1.5 34.7% 39.5%
PIT -2.5 25.3% 28.6%
PIT -3.5 16.4% 20.1%
Team Totals
LinePITSD
O 3.5 61.1% 64.7%
O 4.5 46.9% 49.9%
O 5.5 35.8% 37.3%
O 6.5 25.7% 26.8%
Odds
moneyline PIT 52% · -122 · $82 per $100
BookSDImpl%PITImpl%
DraftKings +102 47.4% -122 52.6%
runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · -185 · $54 per $100
SD -1.5: SD 4.0 − 1.5 = 2.5 vs PIT 4.7 no bet
PIT +1.5: PIT 4.7 + 1.5 = 6.2 vs SD 4.0 BET ✗
BookSDPIT
DraftKings -1.5 +154 +1.5 -185
total Under 9.0 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 9.0 -105 U 9.0 -115
Player Projections actual (projected)
San Diego Padres
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Manny Machado 3B 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 9.4 —
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.1 9.2 —
Xander Bogaerts SS 1.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.8 8.6 —
Luis Campusano C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 8.4 —
Luis Arraez IF 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 7.4 —
Oscar Gonzalez RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 7.4 —
Jose Iglesias SS 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 7.1 —
Elias Díaz C 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 6.8 —
Brandon Lockridge LF 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.9 6.5 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Stephen Kolek Starter 5.1 4.9 5.8 1.9 3.0 47% 100% 15.2 —
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Oneil Cruz CF 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.1 9.5 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 1.1 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 7.3 —
Enmanuel Valdez 2B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 7.0 —
Joey Bart C 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.1 6.9 —
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 6.8 —
Tommy Pham LF 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 6.0 —
Jared Triolo SS 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 6.0 —
Adam Frazier 2B 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 5.9 —
Henry Davis C 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 5.5 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Andrew Heaney Starter 6.1 5.4 6.1 1.9 3.1 44% 100% 14.7 —