San Diego Padres
50% win
2
pred 4.5
FINAL
Pittsburgh Pirates
50% win
1
pred 5.2
2025-05-03 PNC Park 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Luis Campusano OF 9.4 $2.0k 4.7
Brandon Lockridge OF 7.6 $2.3k 3.3
Jared Triolo OF 6.9 $2.3k 3.0
Martín Maldonado OF 8.0 $2.7k 3.0
Alexander Canario OF 6.7 $2.3k 2.9
Oscar Gonzalez OF 8.7 $3.0k 2.9
Enmanuel Valdez OF 8.6 $3.4k 2.5
Jose Iglesias OF 7.5 $3.2k 2.4
Xander Bogaerts OF 9.7 $4.2k 2.3
Randy Vásquez SP 12.9 $5.6k 2.3
Manny Machado OF 11.4 $5.0k 2.3
Adam Frazier OF 6.5 $3.2k 2.0
Bryan Reynolds OF 8.3 $4.1k 2.0
Luis Arraez OF 8.5 $4.3k 2.0
Joey Bart OF 7.5 $3.9k 1.9
Ke'Bryan Hayes OF 7.0 $3.7k 1.9
Andrew McCutchen OF 8.5 $4.5k 1.9
Oneil Cruz OF 11.1 $6.0k 1.9
Fernando Tatis Jr. OF 11.3 $6.3k 1.8
Bailey Falter SP 8.9 $5.4k 1.6
Predictions
San Diego Padres
ML · Model 50% vs Mkt 50%
-108 · $93 per $100
WIN
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
RL · 2.3 off line
-180 · $56 per $100
WIN
OVER 9.5
TOTAL · Proj 9.7 vs Line 9.5
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
San Diego Padres ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + OVER 9.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+472 · $472 per $100
LOSS
SD 50% 50% PIT
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 86.1% 13.9%
6.5 80.0% 20.0%
7.5 70.1% 29.9%
8.5 60.7% 39.3%
9.5 50.4% 49.6%
10.5 41.2% 58.8%
11.5 32.8% 67.2%
12.5 26.2% 73.8%
Run Line (margin)
LinePIT coversSD covers
PIT -1.5 32.7% 41.0%
PIT -2.5 23.5% 32.2%
PIT -3.5 15.7% 25.2%
Team Totals
LinePITSD
O 3.5 63.5% 66.7%
O 4.5 48.6% 55.2%
O 5.5 35.8% 43.2%
O 6.5 23.5% 32.4%
Odds
moneyline SD 50% · -108 · $93 per $100
BookSDImpl%PITImpl%
DraftKings -108 49.6% -112 50.4%
runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · -180 · $56 per $100
SD -1.5: SD 4.5 − 1.5 = 3.0 vs PIT 5.2 no bet
PIT +1.5: PIT 5.2 + 1.5 = 6.7 vs SD 4.5 BET ✓
BookSDPIT
DraftKings -1.5 +150 +1.5 -180
total Over 9.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 9.5 +100 U 9.5 -120
Player Projections actual (projected)
San Diego Padres
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Manny Machado 3B 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.8 11.4 —
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.9 11.3 —
Xander Bogaerts SS 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.8 9.7 —
Luis Campusano C 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 9.4 —
Oscar Gonzalez RF 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 8.7 —
Luis Arraez IF 1.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 8.5 —
Martín Maldonado C 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 8.0 —
Brandon Lockridge LF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 7.6 —
Jose Iglesias SS 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 7.5 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Randy Vásquez Starter 5.4 4.6 5.6 2.4 3.1 49% 100% 12.9 —
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Oneil Cruz CF 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.5 1.0 11.1 —
Enmanuel Valdez 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 8.6 —
Andrew McCutchen RF 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.8 8.5 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.9 8.3 —
Joey Bart C 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.9 7.5 —
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 7.0 —
Jared Triolo SS 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 6.9 —
Alexander Canario CF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.9 6.7 —
Adam Frazier 2B 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.6 6.5 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Bailey Falter Starter 5.4 4.3 5.8 1.7 3.1 40% 100% 8.9 —