San Diego Padres
55% win
9
pred 3.8
FINAL
Pittsburgh Pirates
45% win
4
pred 4.5
2025-05-02 PNC Park 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Alexander Canario OF 6.7 $2.2k 3.1
Jason Heyward OF 8.2 $2.7k 3.0
Tyler Wade OF 7.2 $2.4k 3.0
Martín Maldonado OF 6.8 $2.4k 2.9
Jared Triolo OF 5.8 $2.2k 2.6
Jose Iglesias OF 7.0 $2.8k 2.5
Gavin Sheets OF 8.7 $3.5k 2.5
Enmanuel Valdez OF 8.1 $3.3k 2.5
Luis Arraez OF 9.4 $3.9k 2.4
Xander Bogaerts OF 8.3 $3.8k 2.2
Dylan Cease SP 18.6 $8.5k 2.2
Manny Machado OF 9.2 $4.5k 2.1
Adam Frazier OF 6.1 $3.1k 2.0
Ke'Bryan Hayes OF 6.7 $3.5k 1.9
Bryan Reynolds OF 7.2 $3.8k 1.9
Fernando Tatis Jr. OF 10.8 $5.9k 1.8
Joey Bart OF 6.7 $3.7k 1.8
Andrew McCutchen OF 7.5 $4.2k 1.8
Mitch Keller SP 11.6 $6.7k 1.7
Oneil Cruz OF 9.7 $5.7k 1.7
Predictions
San Diego Padres
ML · Model 55% vs Mkt 58%
-155 · $65 per $100
WIN
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
RL · 2.2 off line
-130 · $77 per $100
LOSS
OVER 8.0
TOTAL · Proj 8.3 vs Line 8.0
-110 · $91 per $100
WIN
San Diego Padres ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + OVER 8.0
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+456 · $456 per $100
LOSS
SD 55% 45% PIT
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 83.5% 16.5%
6.5 78.1% 21.9%
7.5 67.5% 32.5%
8.5 58.6% 41.4%
9.5 50.4% 49.6%
10.5 42.9% 57.1%
11.5 33.8% 66.2%
12.5 27.3% 72.7%
Run Line (margin)
LinePIT coversSD covers
PIT -1.5 34.0% 38.5%
PIT -2.5 25.0% 30.7%
PIT -3.5 16.4% 22.2%
Team Totals
LinePITSD
O 3.5 63.6% 66.5%
O 4.5 50.9% 53.2%
O 5.5 36.7% 41.3%
O 6.5 26.4% 29.9%
Odds
moneyline SD 55% · -155 · $65 per $100
BookSDImpl%PITImpl%
DraftKings -155 58.3% +130 41.7%
runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · -130 · $77 per $100
SD -1.5: SD 3.8 − 1.5 = 2.3 vs PIT 4.5 no bet
PIT +1.5: PIT 4.5 + 1.5 = 6.0 vs SD 3.8 BET ✗
BookSDPIT
DraftKings -1.5 +110 +1.5 -130
total Over 8.0 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.0 -105 U 8.0 -115
Player Projections actual (projected)
San Diego Padres
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Fernando Tatis Jr. RF 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.4 1.0 10.8 —
Luis Arraez IF 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 9.4 —
Manny Machado 3B 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.9 9.2 —
Gavin Sheets LF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 8.7 —
Xander Bogaerts SS 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 8.3 —
Jason Heyward RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.8 8.2 —
Tyler Wade SS 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.9 7.2 —
Jose Iglesias SS 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 7.0 —
Martín Maldonado C 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 6.8 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Dylan Cease Starter 5.6 6.1 5.8 2.3 3.2 49% 100% 18.6 —
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Oneil Cruz CF 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.3 9.7 —
Enmanuel Valdez 2B 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 8.1 —
Andrew McCutchen RF 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.1 7.5 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 7.2 —
Alexander Canario CF 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.1 6.7 —
Joey Bart C 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 6.7 —
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 6.7 —
Adam Frazier 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 6.1 —
Jared Triolo SS 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.0 5.8 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Mitch Keller Starter 5.9 5.3 6.5 2.1 3.4 45% 100% 11.6 —