Kansas City Royals
44% win
8
pred 4.5
FINAL
Tampa Bay Rays
56% win
2
pred 3.8
2025-05-01 George M. Steinbrenner Field 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Travis Jankowski OF 6.8 $2.0k 3.4
Ben Rortvedt OF 6.8 $2.0k 3.4
Freddy Fermin OF 6.1 $2.1k 2.9
Michael Massey OF 7.1 $2.5k 2.8
Vinnie Pasquantino OF 8.5 $3.0k 2.8
Drew Waters OF 6.1 $2.4k 2.5
Yandy Díaz OF 9.2 $3.7k 2.5
Jonathan India OF 7.9 $3.2k 2.5
Jonathan Aranda OF 10.8 $4.4k 2.4
Chandler Simpson OF 7.8 $3.5k 2.2
Junior Caminero OF 9.0 $4.1k 2.2
Brandon Lowe OF 9.1 $4.3k 2.1
Shane Baz SP 18.7 $9.0k 2.1
Kameron Misner OF 8.2 $4.1k 2.0
Salvador Perez OF 8.4 $4.2k 2.0
Mark Canha OF 6.2 $3.4k 1.8
Maikel Garcia OF 7.0 $3.9k 1.8
José Caballero OF 6.3 $3.9k 1.6
Seth Lugo SP 13.1 $8.2k 1.6
Bobby Witt Jr. OF 7.8 $5.7k 1.4
Predictions
Tampa Bay Rays
ML · Model 56% vs Mkt 60%
-170 · $59 per $100
LOSS
Kansas City Royals +1.5
RL · 2.2 off line
-155 · $65 per $100
WIN
OVER 8.0
TOTAL · Proj 8.3 vs Line 8.0
-110 · $91 per $100
WIN
Tampa Bay Rays ML + Kansas City Royals +1.5 + OVER 8.0
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+399 · $399 per $100
LOSS
KC 44% 56% TB
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 75.9% 24.1%
6.5 67.2% 32.8%
7.5 56.2% 43.8%
8.5 50.5% 49.5%
9.5 38.3% 61.7%
10.5 30.2% 69.8%
11.5 21.5% 78.5%
12.5 16.0% 84.0%
Run Line (margin)
LineTB coversKC covers
TB -1.5 34.7% 35.9%
TB -2.5 23.8% 26.5%
TB -3.5 16.6% 19.2%
Team Totals
LineTBKC
O 3.5 57.1% 56.7%
O 4.5 42.4% 43.3%
O 5.5 30.0% 31.9%
O 6.5 18.7% 24.0%
Odds
moneyline TB 56% · -170 · $59 per $100
BookKCImpl%TBImpl%
DraftKings +142 39.6% -170 60.4%
runline Kansas City Royals +1.5 · -155 · $65 per $100
TB -1.5: TB 3.8 − 1.5 = 2.3 vs KC 4.5 no bet
KC +1.5: KC 4.5 + 1.5 = 6.0 vs TB 3.8 BET ✓
BookKCTB
DraftKings +1.5 -155 -1.5 +130
total Over 8.0 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.0 -112 U 8.0 -108
Player Projections actual (projected)
Kansas City Royals
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 8.5 —
Salvador Perez C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 8.4 —
Jonathan India 2B 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 7.9 —
Bobby Witt Jr. SS 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.0 7.8 —
Michael Massey 2B 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.1 —
Maikel Garcia 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.9 7.0 —
Mark Canha LF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 6.2 —
Freddy Fermin C 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 6.1 —
Drew Waters RF 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.1 6.1 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Seth Lugo Starter 6.5 6.2 6.1 2.2 3.1 47% 100% 13.1 —
Tampa Bay Rays
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Jonathan Aranda 1B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 10.8 —
Yandy Díaz 1B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.9 9.2 —
Brandon Lowe 2B 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.1 9.1 —
Junior Caminero 3B 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 9.0 —
Kameron Misner LF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 8.2 —
Chandler Simpson CF 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 7.8 —
Ben Rortvedt C 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.9 6.8 —
Travis Jankowski RF 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 6.8 —
José Caballero SS 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.0 6.3 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Shane Baz Starter 5.9 6.0 5.3 2.1 2.6 48% 100% 18.7 —