Pittsburgh Pirates
41% win
0
pred 4.5
FINAL
Cincinnati Reds
59% win
4
pred 3.9
2025-04-13 Great American Ball Park 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Alexander Canario OF 7.0 $2.1k 3.3
Enmanuel Valdez OF 7.6 $2.6k 2.9
Hunter Greene SP 23.3 $8.5k 2.7
Endy Rodríguez OF 6.8 $2.5k 2.7
Santiago Espinal OF 7.4 $2.8k 2.6
Tsung-Che Cheng OF 5.2 $2.0k 2.6
Gavin Lux OF 8.7 $3.5k 2.5
Spencer Steer OF 8.0 $3.6k 2.2
Adam Frazier OF 6.1 $2.8k 2.2
Austin Wynns OF 5.8 $2.7k 2.1
Noelvi Marte OF 6.3 $3.0k 2.1
Jake Fraley OF 6.9 $3.3k 2.1
Carmen Mlodzinski SP 13.5 $6.6k 2.1
Isiah Kiner-Falefa OF 5.5 $2.9k 1.9
TJ Friedl OF 7.9 $4.2k 1.9
Henry Davis OF 4.7 $2.5k 1.9
Jeimer Candelario OF 7.2 $4.0k 1.8
Oneil Cruz OF 8.7 $5.4k 1.6
Bryan Reynolds OF 7.3 $4.6k 1.6
Elly De La Cruz OF 9.1 $5.8k 1.6
Predictions
Cincinnati Reds
ML · Model 59% vs Mkt 64%
-198 · $51 per $100
WIN
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
RL · 2.2 off line
-125 · $80 per $100
LOSS
OVER 7.5
TOTAL · Proj 8.4 vs Line 7.5
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Cincinnati Reds ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + OVER 7.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+417 · $417 per $100
LOSS
PIT 41% 59% CIN
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 76.0% 24.0%
6.5 69.0% 31.0%
7.5 57.7% 42.3%
8.5 48.3% 51.7%
9.5 38.0% 62.0%
10.5 31.0% 69.0%
11.5 24.0% 76.0%
12.5 19.0% 81.0%
Run Line (margin)
LineCIN coversPIT covers
CIN -1.5 36.5% 34.6%
CIN -2.5 25.6% 24.8%
CIN -3.5 16.2% 18.1%
Team Totals
LineCINPIT
O 3.5 58.4% 54.3%
O 4.5 42.0% 42.4%
O 5.5 29.2% 31.6%
O 6.5 20.0% 22.2%
Odds
moneyline CIN 59% · -198 · $51 per $100
BookPITImpl%CINImpl%
DraftKings +164 36.3% -198 63.7%
runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · -125 · $80 per $100
CIN -1.5: CIN 3.9 − 1.5 = 2.4 vs PIT 4.5 no bet
PIT +1.5: PIT 4.5 + 1.5 = 6.0 vs CIN 3.9 BET ✗
BookPITCIN
DraftKings +1.5 -125 -1.5 +105
total Over 7.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 7.5 -115 U 7.5 -105
Player Projections actual (projected)
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Oneil Cruz CF 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.4 1.2 8.7 —
Enmanuel Valdez 2B 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.3 7.6 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.2 7.3 —
Alexander Canario CF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.3 7.0 —
Endy Rodríguez C 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 1.1 6.8 —
Adam Frazier 2B 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 6.1 —
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 5.5 —
Tsung-Che Cheng SS 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 5.2 —
Henry Davis C 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.7 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Carmen Mlodzinski Starter 5.7 5.6 5.5 2.4 2.8 45% 100% 13.5 —
Cincinnati Reds
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Elly De La Cruz SS 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.2 9.1 —
Gavin Lux 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.0 8.7 —
Spencer Steer 1B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 8.0 —
TJ Friedl CF 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 7.9 —
Santiago Espinal 3B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.8 7.4 —
Jeimer Candelario 3B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.0 7.2 —
Jake Fraley RF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.8 6.9 —
Noelvi Marte OF 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 6.3 —
Austin Wynns C 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 5.8 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Hunter Greene Starter 6.5 7.4 5.5 2.4 2.9 51% 100% 23.3 —