Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays — 2025-04-11 | AI Sports Metrics

43% win

3

pred 4.2

FINAL

57% win

6

pred 4.4

2025-04-11 George M. Steinbrenner Field 0°F

Top DFS Results

Player	Pos	FP	Sal	Val
Danny Jansen	UTIL	28.0	$3.2k	8.8
Christopher Morel	UTIL	32.0	$3.9k	8.2
Kameron Misner	UTIL	17.0	$3.0k	5.7
Ozzie Albies	UTIL	16.0	$4.4k	3.6
Marcell Ozuna	UTIL	16.0	$4.6k	3.5
Taj Bradley	UTIL	25.3	$8.7k	2.9
Jarred Kelenic	UTIL	5.0	$2.1k	2.4
Taylor Walls	UTIL	7.0	$3.1k	2.3
Drake Baldwin	UTIL	5.0	$2.5k	2.0
Austin Riley	UTIL	8.0	$4.4k	1.8
Scott Blewett	UTIL	6.9	$4.0k	1.7
Yandy Díaz	UTIL	6.0	$4.0k	1.5
Mason Montgomery	UTIL	4.3	$4.0k	1.1
Matt Olson	UTIL	5.0	$4.8k	1.0
Bryce Elder	UTIL	6.1	$7.5k	0.8
Michael Harris II	UTIL	3.0	$4.0k	0.8
Pete Fairbanks	UTIL	1.7	$4.0k	0.4
Brandon Lowe	UTIL	2.0	$4.9k	0.4
Pierce Johnson	UTIL	0.3	$4.0k	0.1

Predictions

Tampa Bay Rays

ML · Model 57% vs Mkt 54%

-130 · $77 per $100

WIN

Atlanta Braves +1.5

RL · 1.3 off line

-185 · $54 per $100

LOSS

UNDER 9.0

TOTAL · Proj 8.6 vs Line 9.0

-110 · $91 per $100

LOSS

Tampa Bay Rays ML + Atlanta Braves +1.5 + UNDER 9.0

SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay

+420 · $420 per $100

LOSS

ATL 43% 57% TB

Total Runs

Line	Over	Under
5.5	82.6%	17.4%
6.5	75.7%	24.3%
7.5	64.4%	35.6%
8.5	55.9%	44.1%
9.5	45.5%	54.5%
10.5	37.7%	62.3%
11.5	28.8%	71.2%
12.5	22.3%	77.7%

Run Line (margin)

Line	TB covers	ATL covers
TB -1.5	36.3%	37.1%
TB -2.5	25.5%	28.1%
TB -3.5	18.1%	21.5%

Team Totals

Line	TB	ATL
O 3.5	62.2%	60.8%
O 4.5	47.4%	47.4%
O 5.5	33.2%	37.4%
O 6.5	23.7%	27.8%

Odds

moneyline TB 57% · -130 · $77 per $100

Book	ATL	Impl%	TB	Impl%
DraftKings	+110	45.7%	-130	54.3%

runline Atlanta Braves +1.5 · -185 · $54 per $100

TB -1.5: TB 4.4 − 1.5 = 2.9 vs ATL 4.2 no bet

ATL +1.5: ATL 4.2 + 1.5 = 5.7 vs TB 4.4 BET ✗

Book	ATL		TB
DraftKings	+1.5	-185	-1.5	+154

total Under 9.0 · -110 · $91 per $100

Book	Over	Under
DraftKings	O 9.0 -115	U 9.0 -105

Player Projections actual (projected)

Atlanta Braves

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Matt Olson	1B	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.5	1.1	9.9	—
Austin Riley	3B	1.0	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.4	1.3	9.7	—
Michael Harris II	CF	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.3	1.2	9.6	—
Marcell Ozuna	DH	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.5	1.1	9.0	—
Ozzie Albies	2B	0.9	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.1	0.3	0.9	8.2	—
Jarred Kelenic	LF	0.8	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.4	1.2	7.8	—
Bryan De La Cruz	OF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.1	7.8	—
Drake Baldwin	C	0.6	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.3	0.9	7.5	—
Orlando Arcia	SS	0.8	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.3	1.0	6.5	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Bryce Elder	Starter	5.3	5.0	5.3	1.9	2.9	44%	100%	13.1	—

Tampa Bay Rays

Batter	Pos	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB	K	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Jonathan Aranda	1B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	0.9	9.7	—
Brandon Lowe	2B	1.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1	0.4	1.0	9.2	—
Yandy Díaz	1B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.8	9.2	—
Junior Caminero	3B	1.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.3	0.9	8.5	—
Kameron Misner	LF	1.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.0	0.3	1.0	8.2	—
Christopher Morel	CF	0.9	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.4	1.1	7.5	—
Danny Jansen	C	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.8	7.1	—
Taylor Walls	SS	0.7	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.4	0.9	6.9	—
Jake Mangum	LF	0.9	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.5	6.6	—

Pitcher	Role	IP	K	H	BB	ER	Win%	App%	Proj DFS	Act DFS	+/-
Taj Bradley	Starter	5.4	5.9	5.0	2.0	2.8	47%	100%	17.7	—