Pittsburgh Pirates
41% win
3
pred 4.7
FINAL
Cincinnati Reds
59% win
5
pred 3.9
2025-04-11 Great American Ball Park 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Enmanuel Valdez OF 9.3 $2.3k 4.1
Blake Dunn OF 8.6 $2.3k 3.8
Endy Rodríguez OF 7.9 $2.4k 3.3
Christian Encarnacion-Strand OF 8.4 $3.0k 2.8
Santiago Espinal OF 7.1 $2.6k 2.7
Jose Trevino OF 7.7 $2.9k 2.6
Spencer Steer OF 9.0 $3.7k 2.4
TJ Friedl OF 9.7 $4.0k 2.4
Adam Frazier OF 6.7 $2.8k 2.4
Jack Suwinski OF 7.6 $3.2k 2.4
Joey Bart OF 7.7 $3.4k 2.3
Gavin Lux OF 7.4 $3.4k 2.2
Jeimer Candelario OF 8.3 $3.9k 2.1
Isiah Kiner-Falefa OF 6.3 $3.0k 2.1
Ke'Bryan Hayes OF 7.3 $3.5k 2.1
Brady Singer SP 17.2 $8.7k 2.0
Bailey Falter SP 12.0 $6.2k 1.9
Tommy Pham OF 6.9 $3.6k 1.9
Bryan Reynolds OF 8.1 $4.4k 1.8
Elly De La Cruz OF 9.1 $5.9k 1.5
Predictions
Cincinnati Reds
ML · Model 59% vs Mkt 58%
-155 · $65 per $100
WIN
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
RL · 2.2 off line
-155 · $65 per $100
LOSS
OVER 8.5
TOTAL · Proj 8.6 vs Line 8.5
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Cincinnati Reds ML + Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 + OVER 8.5
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+417 · $417 per $100
LOSS
PIT 41% 59% CIN
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 80.6% 19.4%
6.5 74.2% 25.8%
7.5 64.1% 35.9%
8.5 56.1% 43.9%
9.5 43.7% 56.3%
10.5 36.0% 64.0%
11.5 27.7% 72.3%
12.5 22.7% 77.3%
Run Line (margin)
LineCIN coversPIT covers
CIN -1.5 34.8% 35.8%
CIN -2.5 23.7% 26.1%
CIN -3.5 16.2% 17.7%
Team Totals
LineCINPIT
O 3.5 61.7% 61.8%
O 4.5 47.4% 47.5%
O 5.5 33.2% 35.0%
O 6.5 23.7% 25.1%
Odds
moneyline CIN 59% · -155 · $65 per $100
BookPITImpl%CINImpl%
DraftKings +130 41.7% -155 58.3%
runline Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 · -155 · $65 per $100
CIN -1.5: CIN 3.9 − 1.5 = 2.4 vs PIT 4.7 no bet
PIT +1.5: PIT 4.7 + 1.5 = 6.2 vs CIN 3.9 BET ✗
BookPITCIN
DraftKings +1.5 -155 -1.5 +130
total Over 8.5 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 8.5 +100 U 8.5 -120
Player Projections actual (projected)
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Enmanuel Valdez 2B 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.1 9.3 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 8.1 —
Endy Rodríguez C 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.0 7.9 —
Joey Bart C 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.2 7.7 —
Jack Suwinski LF 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 7.6 —
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 7.3 —
Tommy Pham LF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 6.9 —
Adam Frazier 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 6.7 —
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 6.3 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Bailey Falter Starter 5.4 5.0 5.7 1.6 3.0 44% 100% 12.0 —
Cincinnati Reds
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
TJ Friedl CF 1.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8 9.7 —
Elly De La Cruz SS 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.1 9.1 —
Spencer Steer 1B 1.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 9.0 —
Blake Dunn LF 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 1.1 8.6 —
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 8.4 —
Jeimer Candelario 3B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 8.3 —
Jose Trevino C 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 7.7 —
Gavin Lux 2B 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 7.4 —
Santiago Espinal 3B 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 7.1 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Brady Singer Starter 5.8 5.9 5.9 2.1 3.0 49% 100% 17.2 —