Pittsburgh Pirates
63% win
4
pred 3.8
FINAL
Tampa Bay Rays
37% win
2
pred 4.5
2025-04-02 George M. Steinbrenner Field 0°F
Top DFS Plays
PlayerPosFPSalVal
Jared Triolo OF 6.9 $2.0k 3.4
Ben Rortvedt OF 5.9 $2.1k 2.8
Ryan Pepiot SP 19.7 $7.2k 2.7
Endy Rodríguez OF 6.9 $2.6k 2.7
Adam Frazier OF 7.9 $3.1k 2.6
Jonathan Aranda OF 7.2 $2.9k 2.5
Jake Mangum OF 6.8 $2.8k 2.4
Jack Suwinski OF 8.0 $3.3k 2.4
Paul Skenes SP 21.1 $10.3k 2.1
Ke'Bryan Hayes OF 6.7 $3.4k 2.0
Isiah Kiner-Falefa OF 5.7 $3.0k 1.9
Tommy Pham OF 7.8 $4.1k 1.9
Taylor Walls OF 5.9 $3.2k 1.8
Oneil Cruz OF 9.5 $5.4k 1.8
Yandy Díaz OF 7.6 $4.4k 1.7
Jonny DeLuca OF 5.3 $3.1k 1.7
Brandon Lowe OF 7.8 $4.6k 1.7
Bryan Reynolds OF 8.1 $5.1k 1.6
José Caballero OF 5.6 $3.6k 1.5
Junior Caminero OF 6.4 $4.7k 1.4
Best Bets
Pittsburgh Pirates
ML ★★★ ELITE · +11.6% edge
-115 · $300 bet · $261 profit
Model: 63% vs Market: 51%
WIN
Predictions
Pittsburgh Pirates
ML · Model 63% vs Mkt 51%
-115 · $87 per $100
WIN
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
RL · 2.2 off line
-185 · $54 per $100
LOSS
OVER 7.0
TOTAL · Proj 8.3 vs Line 7.0
-110 · $91 per $100
LOSS
Pittsburgh Pirates ML + Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 + OVER 7.0
SGP · 3-leg same-game parlay
+450 · $450 per $100
LOSS
PIT 63% 37% TB
Total Runs
LineOverUnder
5.5 73.6% 26.4%
6.5 64.6% 35.4%
7.5 52.9% 47.1%
8.5 45.4% 54.6%
9.5 35.8% 64.2%
10.5 28.9% 71.1%
11.5 20.5% 79.5%
12.5 15.5% 84.5%
Run Line (margin)
LineTB coversPIT covers
TB -1.5 35.0% 37.0%
TB -2.5 24.1% 27.9%
TB -3.5 13.7% 21.1%
Team Totals
LineTBPIT
O 3.5 51.6% 55.4%
O 4.5 37.4% 43.1%
O 5.5 26.2% 31.2%
O 6.5 16.4% 21.6%
Odds
moneyline PIT 63% · -115 · $87 per $100
BookPITImpl%TBImpl%
DraftKings -115 51.1% -105 48.9%
runline Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 · -185 · $54 per $100
PIT -1.5: PIT 3.8 − 1.5 = 2.3 vs TB 4.5 no bet
TB +1.5: TB 4.5 + 1.5 = 6.0 vs PIT 3.8 BET ✗
BookPITTB
DraftKings -1.5 +154 +1.5 -185
total Over 7.0 · -110 · $91 per $100
BookOverUnder
DraftKings O 7.0 -102 U 7.0 -118
Player Projections actual (projected)
Pittsburgh Pirates
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Oneil Cruz CF 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.5 1.2 9.5 —
Bryan Reynolds RF 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 8.1 —
Jack Suwinski LF 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 8.0 —
Adam Frazier 2B 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 7.9 —
Tommy Pham LF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.1 7.8 —
Endy Rodríguez C 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 1.0 6.9 —
Jared Triolo SS 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.1 6.9 —
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 6.7 —
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 5.7 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Paul Skenes Starter 5.6 6.3 4.8 1.9 2.3 47% 100% 21.1 —
Tampa Bay Rays
BatterPos HHRR RBISBBBK Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Brandon Lowe 2B 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.3 7.8 —
Yandy Díaz 1B 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.0 7.6 —
Jonathan Aranda 1B 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 1.2 7.2 —
Jake Mangum LF 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.3 6.8 —
Junior Caminero 3B 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.3 1.2 6.4 —
Taylor Walls SS 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 5.9 —
Ben Rortvedt C 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 5.9 —
José Caballero SS 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 1.2 5.6 —
Jonny DeLuca CF 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 1.0 5.3 —
PitcherRole IPKHBBER Win% App% Proj DFSAct DFS+/-
Ryan Pepiot Starter 5.4 5.6 4.8 2.1 2.6 45% 100% 19.7 —