Best Bets
MLB — walk-forward calibrated picks from the sim's surviving filter bands
ⓘ What each bet means
★★★ Lock (3u) — back a market favorite of −150 or steeper that our sim makes ≥12 pts more likely to win than the price. ~1×/week · 71% · +10.3% ROI.
★★ (2u) — a model-favored underdog priced +100 to +149. The durable mid-dog edge · 48% · +7.4%, positive every year.
★ (1u) — a model-favored big underdog priced +200 or longer. High-variance lottery · 33% · +12.8%.
🌬 Wrigley Wind Under (2u) — when the Cubs are home and the wind blows IN, the total goes under more than the book prices · 56% · +12.5%.
Units are flat per tier (3u/2u/1u). All records are walk-forward (the model never saw the result when it made the pick).
★★★ Lock of the Week
★★★
No lock on today's board
The ★★★ fires only when a −150+ favorite is one our model likes by ≥12 pts. Fires ~1×/week. · Lifetime: 96-38 · 72% · +11.1% ROI
★★ Bets
dog +100 to +149 · 2u · the durable mid-dog edge★★☆
ML
St. Louis Cardinals ML
STL @ ATL · Model-favored underdog
+11.3% edge
+136
2u bet
1-4 L
★★☆
ML
Washington Nationals ML
BAL @ WSH · Model-favored underdog
+10.5% edge
+120
2u bet
3-4 W
★★☆
ML
Cleveland Guardians ML
NYY @ CLE · Model-favored underdog
+7.2% edge
+140
2u bet
5-1 L
★ Bets
big dog +200 or longer · 1u · high-variance value★☆☆
ML
Chicago White Sox ML
CWS @ MIN · Model-favored underdog
+10.1% edge
+220
1u bet
3-6 L
🌬 Wrigley Wind Under
Cubs home + wind blowing IN → UNDER · 2u · book under-corrects on blow-in days🌬
No Wrigley wind game today
Fires only when the Cubs are home and the wind blows IN (≥5 mph component). · Lifetime: 82-66 · 55% · +11.4% ROI